Schedule Note.

Listen to this Issue.
   Give those eyes a rest.

Quote of the Week.
   A most important way to react to that niggling thought.

Watching Your Every Move - A Cautionary Technological Tale.
   The idea of RFID tags seem simple and uncomplicated.  But oh, what they might beget...

From Out of the Ether...
   Of antigravity, and power lines, and ants...

'Powers Of Ten' Redux.
   Now YOU can see the original film!

There's MUCH More I Can Do For You!
   Find out more about what The Harrow Group can do for you!

CD/DVD 'Longevity' Update.
   Moving from myth to detailed analysis.

CD/DVD Labeling -- A Very-Different Way!
   Labels without labels, and more ways to beautify your polycarbonate pancakes.

About "The Harrow Technology Report"

 

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Schedule Note.

 

The next issue of "The Harrow Technology Report" will publish near the end of March or early April, due to a convoluted schedule.

 

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Listen to this Issue.

 

Do you prefer to let your ears do the work of keeping you in-touch with, and thinking about where technology is taking us?  If so, "The Harrow Technology Report" is also available in an audio-on-demand, M-P-3 version. 

If you have an M-P-3 player on your system (and most do, such as Window's Media Player, RealPlayer, etc.), the link below will either stream the file to you, or, depending on how your system is configured, it might download the file before playing it.  Alternatively, if you specifically want to download the file, simply use the right-hand mouse button on the link, and choose "Save Target As..."

Also, find out how you can listen at whatever speed is most comfortable for you through the FAQ at http://www.theharrowgroup.com/help.htm .

Here's where to listen to this week's issue!   http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20040223/20040223.mp3    

 

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Quote of the Week.

"The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' (I found it!), but '[Hummm,] that's funny...'"

by Isaac Asimov
http://www.quotedb.com/quotes/522
Courtesy of reader George Daszkowski
[Note the brackets and emphasis are mine. JH]

Sadly, in my opinion, that may also be the phrase most unlikely to be uttered by those too intently-focused on the task-at-hand -- those unable or unwilling to take the time to explore the unanticipated results. 

Yet employers and supervisors should nurture such investigations -- consider how the results of following that path-less-traveled can be lucrative indeed:  penicillin; PostIt notes; even the Carbon Nanotubes that now seem so likely to revolutionize materials sciences and electronics (http://www.upenn.edu/almanac/v50/n18/research.html#nanotube); and more, were the results of '[Hummmm,] that's funny' moments...

When you hear yourself thinking "That's funny," then -- DO Blink!

 

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Watching Your Every Move - A Cautionary Technological Tale.

 

I was recently asked to write an article for the premier issue of Future Brief (http://www.futurebrief.com/), a new site from New Global Initiatives (http://www.ngiweb.com/) that offers brief summaries and other resources to help people, especially those on The Hill who form national policy, to keep up on technological innovations -- but with an added twist.  Future Brief "takes one step back and looks at the greater convergence of the accelerating changes in science and technology, with the equally rapidly accelerating changes in society and politics." (http://www.futurebrief.com/about.asp)

Now that my article has been published in Future Brief (http://www.futurebrief.com/jeffharrow.asp), I'm pleased to be able to share it with you here -- it's an overview of RFID technology, along with the pluses and minuses that may accompany its widespread deployment.

By the way, in the interests of full disclosure, although I am compensated to write articles for Future Brief, the personal recommendation I'm about to give you is not in any way associated with my work for them: 

They offer a free "Daily Brief" service which delivers three carefully chosen technology highlights (with pointers to more information) via Email each day.  Despite the huge amount of research material that I wade through every day which, by necessity, makes me very selective, I've subscribed to Daily Brief because 90+% of the items I've read there interest me.  You can subscribe at http://www.futurebrief.com/brief.asp .

------------------------

 

Larger than a dust mote (but not by much); inexpensive to manufacture and distribute and deploy; millions, and later billions and trillions of them -- virtually everywhere. They will be sowed as if by the four winds, lodging into clothing, tennis balls, tools, passports, car keys, car VIN plates, books, banknotes, pamphlets, and letters. They will become pervasive. And wherever one is, someone will know. (Or at least will have the potential to know.)

This is not a futuristic discussion of nanobots or other bleeding-edge technologies; this is instead the likely results for the lineage of already commercially deployed "Radio Frequency Identification Tags" (RFID Tags) which seem poised to replace today's retail "UPC Bar Codes."

 

Today

Today's bar codes identify one SKU (Sales Keeping Unit) of a product (one particular UPC bar code may identify a 12-ounce can of a particular vendor's cola drink.) Every such can of cola is marked by the same bar code. When the bar code is waved in front of the store's optical scanner (which is why most grocery carts must be unloaded for checkout), the bar code does not identify that unique can of cola; it only identifies that this is "a" 12-ounce can of cola from that manufacturer, and the store's computer then looks up its price and adds it to your bill.

Once you've purchased that can of cola and left the store, regardless of how many times it might later be scanned (difficult except at a checkout counter because the bar code on the can must be read optically), no one could know if that was the particular can of cola that you purchased from a specific store -- only that it is one of millions of such 12-ounce cans of cola from that manufacturer.

 

Enter The Wireless Tag

But once RFID tags replace UPC bar codes, things will be more than a little different. Because each and every RFID tag will likely carry the same information as a UPC bar code, plus an additional globally unique serial number! That means that if you buy a specific 12-ounce can of this cola from your grocery store, where you've identified yourself either by swiping your "loyalty card" for a discount or by paying with a credit or debit card (or even if you pay by cash, as we'll see later), the store's computer knows that you bought that very specific physical can of cola, and no other can of cola.

You didn't even have to unload your grocery cart, because the "Radio Frequency" part of the RFID tag's name means that it's designed to be read at a distance. It means that you might just be able to wheel your full grocery cart straight out the door, and the door sensor will automatically total up your order and charge it to your payment account. Now, depending on how the store's computer is networked, the grocery chain's computer will also know exactly which can of cola you purchased, when, and from which store. Very convenient for all concerned, actually.

 

The Dark Side...

But consider where this technology could, easily, lead, as an infrastructure of these RFID tag sensors/readers becomes widespread throughout society:

As you continue down the street, either drinking the cola or carrying it in your shopping bag, the sensors at the doorways to each store you enter or pass, which are always querying for any tags that get within range, could also be receiving a tiny identification response from your can of cola! But since this store's computer system knows that it didn't have a 12-ounce can of cola with that tag's unique serial number, it ignores it and doesn't try to charge you. Nevertheless, that store's computer did know that that specific can of cola passed its way. And it may well record such trivia as a matter of course. And forward it on to its chain's master computer...

In fact this could occur wherever you walked, leaving invisible crumbs of information about where your can of cola passed. In excruciating detail.

But isn't this trivial? After all, who cares if every can of cola can be tracked? The issue is that these many sensors wouldn't only note that your can of cola passed by -- they would also note the passing of your car key's unique ID; the unique ID of your driver's license, and even the unique ID of each and every dollar bill in your wallet. Toss that empty can of cola into a trash can and the next store you stroll by would still be collecting all the unique numbers of the other things you're carrying, and the things you're wearing. And if all the chains' main computers and those of smaller stores made this mass of random information available to say, a Marketing firm, or to other stores along your path (for a fee, of course), or to a government organization upon demand, then a very detailed picture of "You" -- your travel habits, your spending habits (remember those individually tagged dollar bills?), almost everything about you, could be mixed and matched and dissected in ways that you might, or might not, agree with. This might be the ultimate "data mining" warehouse.

 

...And The Bright Side!

Those and related privacy issues are significant, so why would we pursue implementing such technologies? The answer, as is so often the case, is "money," because along with the dangers, such active tags offer great benefits and economic rewards.

Such ubiquitous RFID tags (or any technological cousins) could dramatically improve all facets of the supply chain; every individual item could be uniquely tracked throughout the entire manufacturing and distribution and retail channels. It would be very difficult for items to "go missing" when their absence could be noted almost immediately by wireless sensors, and their location tracked. It would be trivial to identify, say, packages of meat that had reached their "Sell By" date, or every recalled child's toy on a store shelf or anywhere within the supply chain. Pallets or shipping containers loaded with many items could expose their exact contents to a reader. And many more examples, as such efficiencies allow manufacturing and retail costs to be lowered, leading to higher profits and/or retail price relief.

And note that the benefits of RFID tags are not limited to the supply chain. On the home front we could see refrigerators and pantries that always know exactly what was in them, and even warn of expired items. Tie that in with an Internet-connected home computer network and you could go to your favorite food Web site and ask it for a selection of recipes that you can make tonight with the ingredients you already have on-hand! And you might never again lose your car keys. Or your remote. Or a wandering child...

 

For Good And For Ill, It's Really Already A 'Done Deal'

Clearly, such technology offers both benefits and risks, so one might wish to "slow down" and explore all of these issues prior to implementation. But the problem with that idea is "Moore's Law," which for over 35 years has accurately predicted that, in-effect, the number of transistors on a chip, and hence the chip's computing power, will double every 18 months, while the cost remains stable.

Because of this incredible and compounding exponential rate of innovation, technology moves far faster than the societal discussions and plans and rules and laws that might control its offspring. We seem to always be playing a game of catch-up as we integrate such devices into society. Yet the economics are such that "slowing down" really isn't an option.

For example, the widespread adoption of RFID chips, for all of the supply chain benefits we've been discussing, is already a "done deal." Both Wal-Mart and the US Department of Defense have now required that every supplier add an RFID-tag to every crate or pallet of items (although not yet to the individual items themselves) that they deliver. With these two giants of commerce demanding RFID tags, a huge number of manufacturers across all industry segments are now gearing up to meet the deadlines, or face losing what might be their largest customers.

And once manufacturers are successfully RFID-tagging every case or pallet and the cost of producing the RFID tags falls, how far of a stretch would it be for manufacturers, distributors, and retailers to later demand tagging every individual item to bring supply chain visibility to its ultimate conclusion?

 

The Cautionary Side

As is so often the case these days, it seems that this technology is coming; in fact is already here at the crate and pallet level. And because of its benefits, it seems likely that tagging technology will, eventually, make that final leap to uniquely defining just about everything. But the dark side is there as well, demanding very careful, thoughtful, study. As we implement these technologies, we should take care to implement them in a way that will preserve, or at least knowingly and deliberately give up a minimum of the "privacy" that we have always taken for granted. We don't want to allow such potentially far-reaching changes to happen invisibly, "by accident," as a result of technological innovation.

 

"Educated" Tradeoffs

Broadening the RFID tag example used above to technologies in general, some privacy tradeoffs may be worthwhile; others may not. But "change" is certain. It's only by educating ourselves, and by thinking things through in-advance, that we will be in a position to rationally control the results.

We do have the opportunity to realize many of technologies' benefits while keeping their dark sides at bay. It behooves each of us to determine the acceptable results earlier, rather than latter.

Let's make sure that we create a world that each of us, quite literally, is willing to live in. Because we will. And our kids will...

 

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From Out of the Ether...

 

Perhaps Just A Different Way Of Looking At Things? -- Resurrecting this topic for one last time, I want to share reader Seymour Burch's comments on our antigravity discussions from a recent issue: (www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20031027/20031027.htm#_Toc54762180)

"I don't know enough physics to bang out the equations, and I have long since learned to avoid claiming something is flat out impossible, but anti-gravity in the traditional sense seems to violate the first rule of the patent office. NO PERPETUAL MOTION MACHINES!

Also, that 'conservation of energy' thing...  Nothing is free.

The typical idea of antigravity is that you flip a switch and ka-zaam!, the targeted thing has less weight. Mass would presumably be unaffected. So, take two 100 pound weights, attach them to bicycle pedals that are connected to a generator.  Add antigravity to the weights, and a circuit to enable antigravity when a weight is at the bottom of the stroke, and disable antigravity when it is at the top.  Give a push to get the thing rolling, and voilą!  Free Electricity.

The assumption must be made that the energy cost of the antigravity device is less that the energy required to actually lift the mass in the local gravity field - if not then what's the point?

So, in this scenario (at least), we can deconstruct antigravity into perpetual motion. We are extracting excess energy from a system, and that energy must come from some place.

Funky physics may come up with an enabling principle (what is that thing, zero point fields or something like that?) but I remain very skeptical of antigravity claims without some very very good proof, and a good explanation of where that free energy is coming from."

I agreed with Seymour -- sort of, as follows from my (expanded) reply:

"Yes, ditching the "impossible" idea is a good way to look at things.  But I believe that the patent office doesn't strictly refuse patents on perpetual motion machines -- it's just that unlike most other inventions, they DO require a working model for testing.  So far, that's been a sufficient ward against issuing a patent.

But as we were discussing, it is conceivable to me that as we learn more about the world and universe around and "beneath" us, we may come across findings that force us to reevaluate "laws" such as the 'conservation of energy'. 

For a not too good example, imagine how Einstein's work (and that of others of the day) must have caused other physicists great angst, and excitement, when it became newly-apparent that almost limitless energy (from our perspective) was stored in a drop of water (fusion) -- it was (and still is) just that small matter of engineering, to take advantage of it.

 I can imagine that we have many similar insights -- MANY of them, waiting ahead.  For a speculative example, suppose we suddenly found a way to tap energy from some (currently sci fi) alternate universe in which our universe might be just a microscopic "atom".  Or from some speculative "Zero Point Energy" source [readers Tim Davies, Tim Caves, and others point us to the book "The Hunt for Zero Point: Inside the Classified World of Antigravity Technology,' by Nick Cook.] 

If we ever do identify and learn to tap such energies, they may well seem to be "free" from our perspective, and at such scales those energies might also seem to be limitless to us.

For example, imagine if an ant colony living below a high voltage power line learned to tap some of the energy the lines impart to the free space surrounding them -- the energy can be powerful enough to light- up a fluorescent tube if you hold it at ground level (don't try this yourself!)  From the ants' perspective, the energy would indeed be free and limitless.  (Of course the power company would eventually get around to suing the ants, but that's a different discussion...)  Now, power your antigravity bicycle generator with a similar "unknown" energy source, and the equations change. 

On the other hand, your skepticism is certainly appropriate (and should always be there) -- that's how we keep the many forms of "antigravity wool" from being pulled over our eyes!  :-)"

There's LOTS of speculation in my comments above, but they're intended to make the point that we're just beginning(!) to learn about 'what's out there.'  Like the ant colony, we might one day unexpectedly come across a bonanza that we cannot possibly explain.  The ants can't even SEE those power lines far above the ground, much less gather any sense of the (real) limits to the power they can bring.  If we look long and hard enough (and in enough out-of-the-box places), the same just might happen to us.

Don't Blink!

  

 

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'Powers Of Ten' Redux.

 

I'm SO pleased that as a follow-up to our recent discussion of the Powers of Ten (www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20040126/20040126.htm#_Toc62622951), reader Marc Beland points us to a "Powers of Ten" site I hadn't seen before, which is an incredibly rich playground for helping any of us to better understand what "exponential" means.

Perhaps most significantly, they offer a streaming (low-res and jerky but interesting nevertheless) version of the ORIGINAL "Powers of Ten" film that I referred to last issue; it's at http://www.powersof10.com/p10_day/p10play.html  !! 

(Playing the movie requires the RealPlayer software at

(http://forms.real.com/netzip/getrde601.html?h=software-dl.real.com&f=windows/RealPlayer10Beta_bb.exe&p=
RealOne+Player&oem=dlrhap_bb&tagtype=ie&type=dlrhap_bb ),

or "JetAudio," which aside from the name also plays RealVideo (at http://www.jetaudio.com/download/)).

Not only that, but as you explore beyond their home page at http://www.powersof10.com/ , they sell the movie on DVD or tape, and are now offering an interactive CD that allows you to explore various aspects of the powers of ten.  (Tutorials for the interactive CD are at http://www.powersof10.com/powers/powers.html). 

(Disclosure: I have no affiliation with this site, and have not yet even tried the interactive CD.  But I give them GREAT thanks for making a streaming teaser of the movie available for all of us to see and to listen to.)

 

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There's MUCH More I Can Do For You!

 

You may not realize it, but there's much more to The Harrow Group than just "The Harrow Technology Report."

For almost twenty years, as I've been sharing my research on the ever-faster-moving and converging technologies that are changing how we work, live, and play, I've also been working directly with businesses and organizations, large and small, to help them understand and address how these changes may affect them, their customers, and their customers' businesses, through a series of:

·    Presentations - Highly engaging, interactive, multimedia, constantly-updated presentations and keynote speeches to individual businesses, internal groups, and trade organizations, helping participants to viscerally understand and appreciate how technology has brought us to where we are today, and where it's likely to lead us tomorrow.
 

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Please continue at http://www.theharrowgroup.com/consulting2.htm  for additional information.

Then, contact me at Jeff@TheHarrowGroup.com with any additional questions, to discuss fees, and to schedule a consulting event.  I look forward to working with you!

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CD/DVD 'Longevity' Update.

 

We've explored the issue of how long we can trust the data that we burn onto our CD/DVD disks in the past (such as at www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20031222/20031222.htm#_Toc59533108), but as Fred Langa points out in the Feb. 5 issue of the excellent "LangaList" (http://www.langa.com/newsletters/2004/2004-02-05.htm#2), most of the "longevity" data we've had available has been from the disks' manufacturers themselves.  And while highly improbable of course, it's conceivable that they just might be tempted to 'accentuate the positive.' 

Now though, the independent National Institute of Standards and Technology" has gone into great detail to analyze the different types of disks, their likely lifetimes, how storage conditions can affect their integrity (for example, don't store CDs/DVDs flat for long periods of time; store them in a case, vertically), and the safest methods for labeling and cleaning these polycarbonate packages that can hold your vital business or personal data, or the pictures of your kids. 

For example:

- Did you know that the polycarbonate layer(s) that make up the bulk of these disks absorbs moisture, oxygen, and various environmental pollutants?  These can eventually oxidize the reflective aluminum coating in stamped (ROM) disks (it's called "disk rot"), and so reduce or destroy the disk's readability;

- Don't use "RW" or "RAM" rewritable optical disks for any archiving, as their dyes are far less stable than those used in the "+R" and "-R" write-once variety; and

- All types of CDs (as opposed to DVDs) are particularly fragile on their "top" or label side.  That's because the reflective metal layer is directly under the disk's top surface, which (surprisingly to most of us) is only a thin lacquer coating!  Therefore using a ball point pen or anything sharp or hard on the label surface is discouraged. 

Similarly, harsh solvent-based markers (water or alcohol-based markers are apparently OK, but not those based on toluene or xylene) can penetrate the lacquer and damage the essential reflective metal beneath it.  (DVDs on the other hand DO have a top layer of thick polycarbonate; the reflective layer(s) are actually at the center of the disk's thickness.)  If in doubt, just label the hub area which doesn't contain any data at all.

This paper is interesting and important reading, especially if "your data is your (or your businesses') life."  But even if you don't wade through the entire report, do check out the one-page "Quick Reference Guide for Care and Handling" at http://www.itl.nist.gov/div895/carefordisc/onepage.pdf .

 

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CD/DVD Labeling -- A Very-Different Way!

 

Finally, labeling CDs and DVDs is often an annoying and less-than-aesthetic process involving an indelible marking pen and sloppy handwriting.  Oh, sure, it's really not all that hard to produce quick and dirty, or even very good looking stick-on CD/DVD labels, but many of us don't bother to take the time except for special disks.  And, as we've explored before (www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20031222/20031222.htm#_Toc59533108), there are some indications that sticking that label on a disk might degrade its lifetime.  But it seems that HP has a better idea.

According to the Jan. 12 PC World (http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,114211,00.asp), HP's new "LightScribe" technology manufacturers a special laser-sensitive layer onto the top (normally the 'label') surface of a disk (which will cost about ten cents more than a 'normal' disk.)  Then, when using a LightScribe-upgraded CD or DVD burner (which are expected to be on the market from many manufacturers around July for a surcharge of about $10), you'll be prompted to "flip the disk over in the burner" after the actual data writing has finished.

Now, with the "label" side down (looking at the laser), the system "writes" a detailed, good-looking image of your choice onto the top surface using the same laser that wrote the data!  No ink, no labels, no ribbons, no printer(!) -- just instant professional (monochrome) silk-screened-looking labeled disks!  And this technology can just as easily be built-in to notebook CD/DVD burners, as well as into consumer electronics devices' writeable drives.  See http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press_kits/
2004/ces/bg_lightScribe_technology.pdf  for more details.



I haven't had the opportunity to try this out yet (although I'm looking forward to doing so), but this is a great example of how product manager/engineer Daryl Anderson's own frustration yielded an innovative product that would never have been on a company's "product roadmap."  It's also an example of a company that embraced, rather than shunned, such innovative thought. 

"'We actually got frustrated with putting labels on a disc, ourselves,' says Kent Henscheid, LightScribe marketing manager."

And it seems a very elegant solution indeed.  Kudos, HP.

 

Another Alternative.

You can also use specially designed inkjet printers to print full color images directly onto the top surface of CDs and DVDs, as long as the media is manufactured with a special ink-retaining surface. 

Although I haven't yet tried these personally, Tom's Hardware Guide offers an excellent review of two such printers from Epson, which also do very well on more traditional media, at http://www6.tomshardware.com/howto/20040127/index.html .   They also review four manufacturers' inkjet printable CD/DVD media.


 

The Bottom Line.

If you need color, inkjet is clearly the way to go.  But for the sheer elegance (and possibly better resolution) of pressing the CD/DVD writer's laser to do the task, HP's solution sounds very interesting indeed.

 

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About "The Harrow Technology Report."

 

"The Harrow Technology Report" explores the innovations and trends of many contemporary and emerging technologies, and then draws some less than obvious connections between them, to help us each survive and prosper in the Knowledge Age. 

"The Harrow Technology Report" is brought to you by Jeffrey R. Harrow, Principal of The Harrow Group. http://www.TheHarrowGroup.com .

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Copyright (c) 2001-2005, Jeffrey R. Harrow. All rights reserved.

Jeffrey R. Harrow maintains that all reasonable care and skill has been used in the compilation of this publication.  However, he shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the reader, his/her/its servants, agents or any third party.

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