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The Harrow Technology Report
Insight,
analysis, and commentary on the
Copyright © 2001-2005, Jeffrey R. Harrow. All rights
reserved.
The Info Game.
Listen to this Issue.
Quote of the Week.
The Info Game.
From Out of the
Ether.
There's MUCH More I Can Do For You!
RAM. GIGA-RAM?
Don't Lick That
Envelop! Schedule Note.
The next issue of "The Harrow Technology Report" will publish on July 21, 2003. Enjoy Summer!
Listen to this Issue.Do you prefer to let your ears do the work of keeping you in-touch with, and thinking about where technology is taking us? If so, "The Harrow Technology Report" is also available in an audio-on-demand, M-P-3 version. If you have an M-P-3 player on your system (and most do, such as Window's Media Player, RealPlayer, etc.), the link below will either stream the file to you, or, depending on how your system is configured, it might download the file before playing it. Alternatively, if you specifically want to download the file, simply use the right-hand mouse button on the link, and choose "Save Target As..." Also, find out how you can listen at whatever speed is most comfortable for you through the FAQ at http://www.theharrowgroup.com/help.htm . Here's where to listen to this week's issue! http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20030630/20030630.mp3
Quote of the Week.
From The Past:
"Introduced in 1978, the original
16-bit 8086 chip contained only 29,000 transistors
and ran at 5 MHz... To The Present:
Based on combined desktop, laptop
and server shipments, Mercury Research calculates
that Intel shipped its One-Billionth Processor in
April [2003], roughly 25 years after the
debut of the first 8086 microprocessor on June 8,
1978... And On To Tomorrow: Mercury Research calculates that the next billion X86 CPUs could ship far faster than the first billion processors, in only four [vs. 25] years -- by as early as 2007!"
Paraphrases from a June 9 Intel Press Release,
The Info Game.
My wife and I were taking the 2+ hour drive back from Cape Cod this past weekend (being directed, as always, by my Garmin StreetPilot III (http://www.garmin.com/products/spIII/) - the best ridiculous amount of money I've spent on an electronic gadget in as long as I can remember.) Although not quite perfect (nothing is), a self-contained moving-map GPS device such as this leaves me confident that I can't get lost, and that I can find almost any destination with little effort. It is, from a business and personal travel perspective, as highly addictive as the worst of addictive drugs. [My only major complaint to Garmin: why, oh why, didn't you allow for the use of the gigabyte IBM MicroDrive, rather than the proprietary 128 megabyte memory card -- it would have drastically expanded the area that the unit could explore between visits to the PC or notebook, to half the U.S. or more, at virtually the same price as one memory card!]
It Gets Better. But the services that this device offers get even better. Because so long as you're traveling within the detailed map area that you've previously download (from a PC) into the device's memory card (several states' worth of data, depending on the density of the area involved), the database also includes a wealth of information about "points of interest" along the way, such as lodging, businesses, restaurants, government services, and much more -- all fully integrated into the navigation software. For example, it was approaching dinner time, and it's always our policy to try new restaurants beyond our normal stomping grounds when feasible. In this case, Thai food sounded good, so I punched up "Food & Drink / Asian," and told the StreetPilot III to list the nearest candidates. This presented a list, sorted with the closest Asian restaurants first, with each entry showing the distance to that restaurant along with an arrow showing its direction from our direction-of-travel (so I knew which ones would require backtracking, vs. those in front of us.) And the list, as with all such lists, was "live," meaning that in real time the list re-sorted as we got farther from choices we had passed, while new restaurants in front of us appeared as they got within range. The mileage figures for each entry, and their directional arrows, were similarly "live." This would be pretty useful by itself, but a click on any of these restaurants brought up a display of its address and phone number. That phone number made it a snap to chat with likely candidates to get an idea of their cuisine, see how busy they were, and generally get a sense if this restaurant met our desires. Which brings me to one area where this database just aches to be expanded.
It Could Be EVEN BETTER! As we settled on prospective restaurants, we pulled out my wife's PDA which contains the Zagat's restaurant survey, to get an opinion of how those restaurants near us were rated. (The result of this on-the-fly data surfing was a very good Thai dinner!) But that process was needlessly complex. Why not integrate such added-value material as the Zagat's guide right into the navigation database? (We'll ignore space concerns, since that always gets better, as well as the cost of the additional information, since we already paid separately for the Zagat information, plus enhanced volume through bundling would likely reduce its price.) Similarly, and even more important, how about including real-time traffic info into the GPS display and route calculations -- this would be an invaluable mobile "Killer App!" I know -- some of these capabilities are already available in some markets, at least under experimental conditions. And once wireless bandwidth is pervasive, virtually any information could be integrated through standards such as XML. Just imagine what a difference in time-and-frustration-saved, in added-convenience, (and in better meals), such real-time data integration would make. And (hint - hint), imagine the leading edge that such services, coupled with excellent hardware and databases, might give to the company(s) who first offer such integrated services! (It's also rather interesting that in this discussion, I've said little about the StreetPilot III's core GPS functionality -- it just works. Raw GPS data is now a commodity available from chips in your pocket cell phone, much less from these larger, task-oriented units. But what good would a raw readout of lat./long./elevation be to most of us? Indeed, the differentiation for "location-aware" devices is no longer in how well the basic GPS functions work, since a highly functional "floor" has already been established as the "price of entry." Instead, the overall value of current and future "GPS devices" will be judged more on the INTEGRATION of an ever-growing sphere of information (restaurants, traffic info, real-time updated street maps, satellite photo overlays, and far more), on better displays and user interfaces (the StreetPilot III's color display and fairly good user interface set it in front of the pack on GPS mapping functions alone), plus on other functions that dramatically enhance the "basic" location service.) I KNOW that these further "integrations" will happen. It's just a matter of by whom, and when. The good news is that this is certainly NOT news to the companies poised to further change our commutes, our business trips, and those wonderful family trips with the kids (to whom, when they inevitably whine "Are we there yet?", you can now look at the GPS and respond "Just another 2 hours, 14 minutes, and 16 seconds, Johnny."). Of course Johnny, who probably mastered the depths of the GPS software and user interfaces far faster than his parents, might also point out that Burger King is only 3.2 miles ahead, and would take them only .23 miles out of their way. And oh, look -- there's a nice miniature golf range just beyond that...
From Out of the Ether.
Just a few of your comments on the previous issue:
·
On The Subject Of Lawn Mowers vs.
Genetics o Przemek Klosowski is concerned that we might have trouble genetically engineering "stunted" grass to grow quickly until it's mature (although I suspect that this will be just "a matter of programming" once we reverse-engineer the code that makes grass, well "grass.") But he does suggest another potential spawn of NBIC that might accomplish the same "manicured lawn" in a rather different way: "How about another tack: nano-robots that climb up the grass stem and clip it after traveling 2 inches. You'd buy a bag of those, and sprinkle them around the lawn. Think about it, they could come in handy for keeping your hair cut, as well." LOTS
of different ways to do things, once we have NBIC
tools at our disposal!
o
Tom Reaney points out that
genetically modified (GM) grass, going at least part
of the way towards the good looks and ease of
maintenance that we were exploring, may be right
around the corner from Monsanto. According to the
UK's June 15 The Sunday Times article by Jonathan
Leake and Lauren Quaintance (available online only
with a paid subscription), Monsanto is petitioning
the USDA for permission to market "genetically
modified extra-smooth grass to golf courses,"
which will also contain a gene that makes it
resistant to RoundUp weed killer, making it easier
to rout out weeds that do show up.
·
Regarding "Tag, You're It"
(http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/ "The RFID article about tagging money against money-laundering immediately brought up some ideas for applications and opportunities for a whole industry that central bankers might NOT be so happy about. These devices might start out as perfectly legal gadgets for detecting large amounts of cash at border crossings, but imagine such a "Banknote Finder" for burglars and pocket thieves? Imagine a pickpocket armed with a device that she could point at a crowd and see who is carrying how much? Perhaps there will be a new industry for Radiowave-proof wallets, lockers, etc! I
hope this e-mail helps you in understanding how your
readers use the Harrow Technology Report. Besides
being quality entertainment and making your readers
smile, you manage to inspire better solution
development processes in their enterprises with your
systems thinking approach."
·
"A Different Kind of
Thinker,"
Redux -- Commenting on an article in the last
issue that explored our abilities to assimilate the
vast number of exponentially-growing technologies
that increasingly assail us
(http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/ "Outstanding work, as always. Your June 16 newsletter began with a prescient quote from Marcus Aurelius. Somewhat later, you continue with "A Different Kind Of Thinker", and expound on the increased need for cross-disciplinary NBIC and out-of-the-box expertise, going forward. To your commentary I would add that we will need *more* than cross-disciplinary thinkers from within the context of NBIC. We will need social scientists, poets, philosophers/ethicists, historians, marketers, etc. *who take the time to familiarize themselves with technology*, and who help our species with context and techniques for [incorporating] our accelerating interactions with technology. This latter group has a responsibility to fulfill: I fervently hope that the "different thinkers" in this group (not just sci-fi authors, although their insights are pregnant with value), embrace our inevitable convergence with technology, and use their considerable current (and future) insights to provide a context for our species, as we move to the next plateau(s) of development. Taking this full circle, by your starting the June 16th newsletter with the Marcus Aurelius quote, you presaged what I'm suggesting - i.e. taking the sage advice of common wisdom from *all* good, different thinkers. I suggest more explicitness about the *necessary* contributions that the Marcus Aurelius's of our time - and others going forward - will have to make if we are to live well with technology, and it's best promises. It's more than just a convergence of NBIC's 'different' minds; it's also those outside of the NBIC box that will help make the whole thing work -- or work badly." Thank you, Sanford; I agree. In fact, one goal of "The Harrow Technology Report" is explicitly TO get far more than "core technologists" thinking along these lines. YOU, the audiences of this publication, and of my presentations and consulting, represent very diverse fields, interests, and positions across the spectrum of our society, ranging from CxOs and business people from the largest to the smallest of companies, through respected technologists and educators in many fields, and even into classrooms (where this journal provides a real-time textbook for class work, even at the university level) -- and to everyone in-between. If I were just focusing these discussions on technologists, I wouldn't consider them nearly as successful, because Sanford is correct. Accepting and viscerally internalizing our incredibly rapidly growing intertwined technologies in ways that enable us to use these changes to our advantage, are critical "success factors" for us all, across the board. Similarly, all of your comments, reflected here from time to time and coming from such a diverse audience, help us all to benefit from the necessary diversity of insights and knowledge. Such a broad viewpoint is, indeed, very crucial for success. Have your colleagues and friends join in - the synergy helps us all! (http://www.theharrowgroup.com/signup.asp)
Begin Self-Serving Advertisement There's MUCH More I Can Do For You!
You may not realize it, but there's much more to The Harrow Group than just "The Harrow Technology Report." For almost twenty years, as I've been sharing my research on the ever-faster-moving and converging technologies that are changing how we work, live, and play, I've also been working directly with businesses and organizations, large and small, to help them understand and address how these changes may affect them, their customers, and their customers' businesses, through a series of:
·
Presentations -
Highly engaging, interactive, multimedia,
constantly-updated presentations and keynote
speeches to individual businesses, internal groups,
and trade organizations, helping participants to
viscerally understand and appreciate how technology
has brought us to where we are today, and where it's
likely to lead us tomorrow.
·
Workshops
- Beginning with the presentation described above
(to give all participants a common understanding and
insight), the workshop further engages attendees to
explore how this march of technology might affect
their individual businesses and organizations, and
their specific needs.
·
One-On-One Consulting -
Individualized
consulting services, available via phone or
in-person, to help you explore the topics and trends
discussed in The Harrow Technology Report,
and related issues. Please continue at http://www.theharrowgroup.com/consulting2.htm for additional information. Then, contact me at Jeff@TheHarrowGroup.com with any additional questions, to discuss fees, and to schedule a consulting event. I look forward to working with you! End Self-Serving Advertisement RAM. GIGA-RAM?
Gigabit RAM chips are more than a breezy promise from Nantero, Inc., based on their May press release at http://www.nantero.com/pdf/press%20release%205_%2003.pdf which was brought to our attention by reader Kenneth LaCrosse. It describes that Nantero "had created an array of ten billion suspended nanotube junctions on a single silicon wafer." (Note the "past" tense.) Each junction is able to remain
in an "up" (zero) or "down" (one) position without
any power needed to retain its state (it is
"nonvolatile memory," like Flash memory or a disk
drive), and because the nanotubes are so tiny and
weigh so little, they can be switched very quickly
with very little power. "Nantero
is currently developing NRAM™ –a high-density
nonvolatile random access memory chip using
nanotechnology. The company expects to deliver a
product that will replace all existing forms of
memory, such as DRAM, SRAM and flash memory, with a
high-density nonvolatile RAM – ‘universal memory.’
And Nantero indicates that this can be scaled up to make even larger memory chips. But a newer, June 3 article in New Scientist, http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993838 , suggests that this "gigabit NRAM chip" is the theoretical POTENTIAL for such a chip, rather than the current reality. There, Nantero CEO Greg Schmergel is expecting, "...to have NRAM memory capable of storing up to four megabits in 18 months and components that could compete with current types of RAM in around three years."
Suppose... While Nantero sorts out what they're telling the public (perhaps in deference to their patent applications), just SUPPOSE that they (or someone else, or via a different technology) pulls this off! Could we end up with solid state memory denser and less expensive than our familiar rotating disk drives, thereby quickly melting the historic differentiation between "memory" and "storage"? (And consequently bringing about the death knell for the disk drive industry?) Could our PDAs and cell phones and other electronic gadgets (GPS?) have the amounts of storage that we associate with desktop PCs today? Will the idea of "booting" a system fade into antiquity, as systems with nothing but non-volatile memory spring back to life in exactly the same running state they were in when the power switch was last moved to OFF? It may or may not happen this time, in this way, by these folks. But look at history -- I have little doubt that it will. So, Don't Blink!
Don't Lick That Envelop!
Finally, don't lick that flap if you have something to hide -- a particularly hard lesson learned by a 35-year old man who was just arrested for a murder committed 21 years ago (http://www.sunherald.com/mld/democrat/news/nation/5973158.htm). It seems that DNA technologies of twenty, and even ten years ago, were too crude to lift a "DNA fingerprint" from the victim's body. But this was finally accomplished last year. The question then, was how to legally get a DNA sample from the suspect to test for a match? The authorities sent him a letter containing a form he had to fill out, along with a self-addressed (and assumedly stamped) return envelop. All he had to do was sign the form, lick the flap, and drop it in a mailbox. (I wonder if this was a "You've Won!" sweepstakes kind of form...?) This freely-given DNA sample was then analyzed, matched to the "fingerprint" on the body, and he was arrested. Talk about "getting licked!"
This story is somewhat humorous (although assumedly not for the man arrested), but it does remind us that "privacy" as we've known it is being constantly eroded by the technological advances that are otherwise so valuable. We've seen TV cop shows where the DNA from a glass of water given to someone being interrogated, or a thrown-out piece of chewing gum, can be a "smoking gun" -- and now we've seen a real-life version. In a different kind of privacy
issue, another man was just sentenced to 30 years in
jail based on the evidence stored in his car's
"black box" -- it documented for the police that he
was actually moving at 100 MPH just prior to hitting
a car containing two teenagers
(http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl= And if you don't think that YOU
have such a "black box," consider that they're
already built into 25 million cars in the US as part
of the engine and data monitoring system!
(http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=405&u=/
Just something to keep in mind as you walk around with your cell phone turned on, drive past recording traffic surveillance cameras on roadways, take the "fast lane" through toll plazas, or walk past shops' surveillance cameras on a sidewalk. For both good and for ill (and there ARE both "goods" and "ills"), our lives are increasingly an open book; let's be sure that we only allow our technologies to shape our societies in ways that we are, quite literally, willing to live with.
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