Listen to this Issue.
   Give your eyes a rest.

A LOT Goes Into A Little.
   "The purest product manufactured on a commercial scale..."

Errata.
   Too much of a good thing.

Tube-Be-Gone.
   You're still using "tubes."  For now...

Printing-On-Demand.  But, Printing - WHAT?
   Another Guttenberg revolution?

There's MORE I Can Do For You!
   Check out the other services from The Harrow Group!

How Far From On-High?
   How many skyhooks does it take to cover a continent?

From Out of the Ether.
   Your comments on "Christmas, 2020."

Nothing Up This Sleeve...
   "Virtual" in a whole new light.

About "The Harrow Technology Report"

 

Listen to this Issue.

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A LOT Goes Into A Little.

"It takes 3.7 pounds of fossil fuels and other chemicals, and 70.5 pounds of water, to produce a single two-gram microchip."

"The technology is not free," says Eric Williams of the United Nations University in Tokyo... "The environmental footprint of the device is much more substantial than its small physical size would suggest."

"Sixty-nine billion integrated-circuits [the purest product manufactured on a commercial scale] were produced last year..." 

"Silicon Hogs," Nov. 13, 2002
http://www.salon.com/tech/feature/2002/11/13/
microchips/index.html
(Brought to our attention by reader Dana Hoggatt.)

 

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Errata.

As many of you know all too well, the Email service that delivers this Report to you stuttered again last issue, sending as many as ten or more issues to some "lucky" subscribers.  This had NOTHING to do with your subscription; it was a bug in the Emailer system. 

This certainly was not intentional.  I do think the information in here is useful and interesting, but certainly not to THAT degree!

The good news is that the service provider believes that they do understand the specific misconfiguration issue that caused the problem, and so it's unlikely to occur again.  We all hope...

I pride myself on personally answering EVERY Email you send me about The Harrow Technology Report, but in any snafu situation like this, where so many of you respond to make sure that I understand the severity and scope of the problem, my time is best spent trying to address the issue itself.  So your 'heads-up' notes often do not get an individual response (although every one is read!) 

Under normal circumstances, your Emails continue to receive prompt personal attention, and my direct response.

            Jeff

 

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Tube-Be-Gone.

It was never a "small thing," that Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) that has been at the heart of our TVs and computer monitors for about half a century.  They're big, ungainly, heavy, fragile, power-hungry, heat-producing, contain toxic elements and more, yet they became almost everyone's friend as they opened a window into a world of entertainment, news, and the Internet.  Even long after the idea of "tubes" had faded from our vocabulary. 

Indeed, CRTs remain the choice for many graphics professionals who find that CRTs render smoother images and better color, at a wider range of resolutions and viewing angles, compared with today's LCDs.

But as reader Sander Olson points out, it looks like the beginning of the end for these leftovers from a bygone day, as Sony has announced that the end of March will signal the demise of their entire line of 17-inch and 19-inch CRT monitors and OEM Trinitron CRTs.  (http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,3973,841366,00.asp)

Oh, CRTs, and even Trinitrons in the larger 21-inch and 24-inch sizes, won't instantly disappear from the store shelves.  But the growth in LCD panel sales (estimated to be at 46% of all monitors sold by the end of this year) has firmly burned-in "Moore's Law" across the face of CRT displays.  For general use, it does seem that we're headed towards the day when we'll leave CRT monitors, like the "All-American Five-Tube Radios" from which they sprang, in the dust.

I have both a Sony CRT and a different brand of LCD panel in front of me, connected to the same system (I love graphics cards, such as my nVIDIA GeForce 4, that provide both an analog and digital output and allows me to run both monitors simultaneously as an extended desktop!)  Although I've enjoyed Trinitron monitors for many years and still find their rendition excellent (and they continue to do some things better than LCDs), I also find that the LCD appears brighter and sharper.  And so it has migrated to become my "primary" monitor. 

CRTs are not in ICU yet, but they are on technological life support.  LCD prices will continue to drop as we get better at manufacturing them; their quality will continue to improve (compare today's Active Matrix panels with the STN panels of several years ago); and new developments, such as OLEDs (Organic Light Emitting Diodes) hold the potential to take the flat panel display to new visual heights (OLEDs, and related technologies where individual pixels generate their own light rather than filtering out light from a backlight, are eye-poppingly bright and clear.)

There will be some nostalgia as CRT monitors begin their journey to follow the 5U4s, 12AX7s, and their other tubular brethren into the past, but there is a bright, high-resolution future ahead of us. 

Think of all the physical desk space you'll recover, and of all the power and waste-heat you'll save.  It may take five years or longer, but I already foresee the day when a walk down the isle of your neighborhood electronics superstore will yield row upon row of sleek, thin monitors with never a huge CRT model in sight.  And OUR kids will eventually be telling THEIR kids, "Why, when I was a girl, our monitors took up our entire desks!"  And their kids will just roll their eyes, like my kids do when I tell them about the "good 'ol days" when I used to burn my fingers replacing tubes. 

Which is as Moore's Law decrees it should be...

Don't Blink!

 

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Printing-On-Demand.  But, Printing - WHAT?

 

Computer printers have come a LONG way: from the massive chain printers that first graced those hermetically-sealed mainframe corporate shrines; to my first terminal that used a long hexagonal die that spun around and then laterally positioned itself to strike just the right character through a ribbon (slow, but the terminal only printed at about 10 characters/second!); to the daisy wheel printers with film ribbons that rivaled the printing of the day's gold standard - the IBM Selectric; to the amazing (but expensive until recently) laser printer; and finally to today's ink jets that can rival the quality of professionally-printed pictures.

But other types of printers, using variations on the theme of ink jets as well as other technologies, have been printing far more than pictures -- they've been printing solid objects.  And as you'll shortly see, far more!


The Lead-Up.

The field is called stereolithography (http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/19991018.html#_Toc464536634 and http://www.approto.com/pages/2/index.htm and http://www.google.com/search?q=stereolithography&
hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8).   By various means, it takes a 3D CAD-type drawing file as its input and creates the real solid object by "printing" bits of special material (or hardening just the right areas of a liquid), one layer at a time. 

(With inkjet technologies, the heads move across the area to be "printed", leaving tiny bits of material (instead of ink) where the bottom layer of the object should exist.  The "printer" then moves the platform holding the object down one layer-height and repeats the process, depositing material where it should be in the second layer.  Similarly, this process continues to the top layer and, when complete, a real, accurate, 3D object has been created that can be used as a mold for creating more parts (perhaps out of materials that can't (yet) be printed).  Or in many cases the parts are used as direct prototypes. 

With some "liquid" systems, a bath of liquid resin is the target of a set of lasers (perhaps three).  The lasers converge on just the areas where solid parts of the object should exist, and the combined heat of the three lasers striking that point solidifies the resin.  The table holding the resin bath then moves down one layer-height, and the process repeats until the entire object stands proud.)

This process is also known as "Rapid Prototyping."

Another technique is based on the typical laser printer, which deposits a known amount of material with precise placement.  The "paper tray" moves down a layer, and the process repeats.

Although there are still limitations as to what can be made in this manner, the magic is that today, you can Email a CAD file to a company that does this work, and often have the finished prototype in your hands (via FedEx) within two-days! 

(Unless, of course, you happen to have a "home stereolithography" kit -- shall we call this Desktop Manufacturing?  But that's perhaps still a (short?) ways into the future, since researchers are exploring how to make such devices affordable.  That way, little Jimmy can create his full-color, exactly-as-he-wants-them toy soldiers, and much more...)


The NBIC Connection.

Now that we have a sense of how "printing" solid objects is already in widespread use, consider taking the concept a bit farther, as is being done at the Medical University of South Carolina.  Brought to our attention by reader Clyde Haggard, the Jan. 22 NewScientist.com (http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993292) describes how 'Tissue Engineer' Vladimir Mironov has washed the ink out of inkjet printer cartridges and replaced it with a suspension of cells, such as hamster ovary cells, or of other biological material.  The second cartridge is loaded with a "thermo-reversible gel" which remains liquid below 68 degrees but solidifies above 90 degrees. 

They then "print" alternate layers of the cells and the gel to get the cells in just the right shape.  Once the cells begin to grow together the gel is easily dissolved away, leaving a purpose-built piece of tissue!

(You can get to a larger version of this picture through the article, at the link below.)
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993292

Of course these tissue engineering techniques are in their infancy; there's a long way to go before your surgeon can print up a "heart on demand."  But between techniques such as these, and other efforts resulting from NBIC,  the convergence of Nanotechnology, Biology and medicine, Information sciences, and Cognitive sciences (such as growing complete organs in-situ), "Kidneys To Go" may eventually find its way into the Yellow Pages!

And won't THAT change the rules...

Again, Don't Blink!

 

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How Far From On-High?
 

In the last issue where we were discussing "21st Century Airship's" plans to cover the continent with floating telecommunications platforms (http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/
20030120/20030120.htm#_Toc30679043), I mentioned that I was more than a little skeptical of the implication that they could provide such broad coverage with so few airships.  But I didn't have the formulae at hand to prove this mathematically.  The Web of course, through the efforts of readers Steven Clark and Joseph Friedlander, now tells all:

"Using the distance to the horizon calculator at 'Boat Safe' (http://www.boatsafe.com/tools/horizon.htm) the distance to the horizon from an altitude of 62,000 feet should be approximately 335 miles.  Therefore the 62K Tower should service a circle about 670 miles across.

Calculating the total area 10 such 'towers' could service is more difficult as circles do not pack.  An overlap is required to ensure complete ground coverage.  Assuming the 'towers' were configured such that the actual coverage is a square with a diagonal the same size as the diameter of the circle (see diagram) the total coverage of the 10 'towers' would be 2,244,485 square miles.

 

As the area of the USA (including Alaska's and Hawaii) is 3,618,000 square miles (Lonely Planet: http://www.lonelyplanet.com/destinations/
north%5Famerica/usa/), approximately 17 'towers' should do the job.  However, given wastage (coverage for off-shore areas etc.) and the geographic dislocation of Alaska and Hawaii you'll need more."

So, it turns out that my skepticism was misplaced. 

It does seem clear that their initial ten airships could make a good dent in providing the continent-wide connectivity implied in the Toronto Star article.  And that would be a most interesting beginning towards the holy grail of anywhere, anywhen connectivity.

Once again, Don't Blink!

 

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From Out of the Ether.

Quite a few of you offered-up interesting comments on "Christmas, 2020-Style" in the last issue (http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/
20030120/20030120.htm#_Toc30679045). 

Quite reasonably, there is much room in which to speculate on the technologies of twenty years from now, considering that few people in 1983 could have predicted today's technology, and its vast impact on society.  So it's my pleasure to share just a few of your comments with the rest of us:

Dick Timberlake -

"As to the tale by Ian Pearson, there is a reference to 2050 as well as 2020 in it -- a misprint? Other than that, his article is completely fantastic. I predict that in 20 years, advances in technology will be of great benefit -- but that it won't all be hedonism and class division. In fact, technology advancement makes people more productive -- there will still be work, but it will be different, and more of it will be done per person. Also, technology is a great democratizer -- today's "poor" have things a king could not have imagined a century or two ago, such as TV, cars, microwaves, computers, air conditioning and many other things."

Don Peters -

"It isn't that I don't think we'll see big changes in the future, I'm absolutely sure we will. But when making sensible predictions for the future, one has to keep in mind what's possible verses what people want. Ian's predictions were more along the line of what may be technically possible. I'm always eager to see the next technical thing, but many of the things he predicts are repelling to me.

Plus, since you're about my age, you may remember many predictions made in the sixties that either never came to pass, or took far longer than anyone expected:

- David Sarnoff (of RCA) predicted that by 1990 we would all have a nuclear power plant in our basement!

- Nuclear rockets were being tested (project Rover), and they were soon supposed to power all our space travel.

- Moving sidewalks were predicted to be commonplace by the mid-seventies.  Even now, they're only common at larger airports. And many people don't use them - they'd rather get the exercise walking.

- Wall-hanging flat-screen TVs would be in everyone's home by the late 70's.

- Gas turbine cars were being road tested, and by the mid-seventies, we would all be driving these cars since they were smoother, quieter, and less polluting.

- The Wankel rotary engine was constantly talked about as the engine of the future (more powerful, simpler, less vibration) and we would all be using them soon. (I did, in fact, own a Mazda with such an engine in 1974. But even now, the concept is less popular than the early 60's.)

- Solar cells were an amazing technology, and they would soon power the world, driven by the sun's inexhaustible energy supply. We're still trying to drive the cost down and get efficiency up.

- And in the late 80's and early 90's, optical disks were the rage, and it was predicted that we would soon see the death of the magnetic disk. In fact, magnetic disks have kept up quite well in popularity.

So maybe you can see why I'm so skeptical about predictions - so many just never come to pass...

Forget the turkey - I like it just as it is. But take strawberries. They've been bred to look great, but at the expense of flavor. I would love it if they could bring back the nice rich sweet flavor of wild strawberries...

Even closer to home, there is hardly a day that goes by that I don't hope technology can help find a cure for common human ailments, such as heart attacks, stroke, Alzheimer's disease, etc.

And, I along with many, many others, are still waiting for our methanol-powered fuel cell car. That development will be an enormous advance that will benefit us all in so many ways.

I think Ian is making a mistake of extrapolating the type of technological advances we can expect in the coming years. He is focused on pure electronics technology, which has driven our growth engine for the past 30 years. And while we definitely will continue to make advances here (e.g., cheap wall-sized displays, pervasive Internet, massive computing power), the advances that we will consider most important and meaningful in the coming years will instead be in the area of biotech.

Thanks for your newsletter publications - I really enjoy reading them!"

Don Stadius -

"The author of this has just described the world's worst narcotic mind controller. Whoever controls the "Matrix" controls everyone.

 

The five year old girl, instead of taking her new Barbie next door to play with the neighbor girl and her new Ken, sends the Barbie to play with Ken.  She sits passively and experiences the sanitized emotions of a doll.

 

Meanwhile, instead of slipping out to a bar and picking up a live person, her mother puts on her dream cap and has a programmed liaison with an anonymous man.

 

What is on tap for New Years Eve? I can hardly wait."

 

Thanks, all, for your insights; they'll keep us thinking. 

In my opinion, the greatest impact on us during the years to come will be from the continuing convergence of the things we know today, plus the new convergence of Nanotechnology, Biology & medicine, Information sciences, and Cognitive sciences (NBIC).  Which, in many ways, really WERE described by Ian.  Imagine -- if Ian's Barbie does come to pass -- why not then, similarly-designed full humans (with all of the very real dangers, and potential benefits, that will accompany them)?

It's all about the new NBIC Convergence.  And it won't all be pretty...

 

Back to Table of Contents

Nothing Up This Sleeve...
 

Finally, consider the picture, below, of this "keyboard" (brought to our attention by reader Ben Pashkoff and others):

According to Senseboard Technologies (http://www.senseboard.com/), this person is actually typing into his PDA as he wiggles his fingers just as if he were typing on a keyboard.  But of course in this case, he's typing on thin air. 

The "hand bands" and their associated electronics measure finger movements and translate them into the appropriate keystrokes for the PDA (or any other device expecting keyboard input).  When this prototype enters production next year, it might communicate via cable, Bluetooth, perhaps infrared, etc. 

A Nov. 14 review by PCWorld.com (http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/
0,aid,70568,tk,dnWknd1117,00.asp) found that this device "clearly needs work," but the effect of watching it in use was "freaky,"

"A young man hunched over a counter at the Senseboard booth was typing in thin air on what appeared to be an invisible keyboard. The developers envision subway cars filled with commuters typing in midair as they key messages into their mobile phones, Pocket PCs, or Palm devices."

And Senseboard is not alone in this vision of waggling fingers -- Samsung demonstrated a prototype of "Scurry," not due out until later in 2003 in the U.S., which apparently worked better, but as you can see in the picture below, it would certainly grab even more attention when worn outside the halls of COMDEX:

Yet perhaps these devices might be arriving at a propitious moment, given the current infatuation with the young wizard Harry Potter:

What might be more, um, natural, than people waggling their fingers in thin air as words appear before their eyes?

 

As Arthur C. Clarke noted so well,

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

As these "keyboards-that-aren't" cause us to consider, just where do we draw that line...?

 

About "The Harrow Technology Report"

 

"The Harrow Technology Report" explores the innovations and trends of many contemporary and emerging technologies, and then draws some less than obvious connections between them, to help us each survive and prosper in the Knowledge Age. 

"The Harrow Technology Report" is brought to you by Jeffrey R. Harrow, Principal of The Harrow Group. http://www.TheHarrowGroup.com .

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