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The Harrow Technology Report
Insight,
analysis, and commentary on the
Copyright © 2001-2005, Jeffrey R. Harrow. All rights
reserved.
YOUR Views of the Next 'Killer Apps.'
A Special Report Nov. 18, 2002
In a recent issue (http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20021104/20021104.htm#_Toc23925811) we explored how, in about eight years, commodity CPU chips may be running at 15,000 megahertz (15 gigahertz) and be powered by one-billion transistors. That's some SERIOUS commodity computing power. Considering that in Nov, 2002 the latest and greatest will be performing at 3,060 megahertz (3.06 gigahertz), and that most of us would be very hard-pressed to use all of that power (excluding scientific and power users, and gamers), I suggested that what we REALLY need to rekindle the "PC Revolution" is a set of new "Killer Apps;" their features will be SO compelling that, once again, we'll all be on the edges of our seats waiting for the next notes of Moore's Law to hit the shelves. But what will those Killer Apps be? And so far, the software industry hasn't come up with a new one for quite some time. So I asked YOU what applications YOU think might again light up the PC world, so that your ideas might spur software developers in these direction. Your responses have been, well, 'bountiful' to say the least, and I'm going to share a selection of them with you here. I've taken the liberty of trying to make sense of this technological future-brouhaha by consolidating them roughly into sections. But as you'll see, many ideas want to span a number of areas. May you, and the developers who read this, succeed in again lighting up our "PC lives."
Click on either
the Categories, or on the individual
Virtual Reality.
Virtual Reality, by Miriam English --I
build virtual worlds for a living. Virtual Reality
is definitely the next big thing. It feels the way
graphical interfaces were in the days of 8-bit
processors -- we could understand the potential,
but in those early days they were slow and clunky,
and took up too much memory. Multiuser VR is a brilliant communication tool. It places very little load on networks; the end machines do the bulk of the work, send just position and action info, unlike a video feed which requires massive amounts of info to be streamed. Discrimination on the basis of race, sex, physical disability, and physical attractiveness become irrelevant in VR -- you choose how you present yourself. VR fiction is the next step beyond movies -- it is like being able to walk around inside the story. Sure, it is hard to do, and people are just starting to develop the language and tools for it, but consider how different the first movies were from stage shows or radio. Early attempts at movies didn't use editing, or panning. They didn't have sound or dollies or any of the sophisticated lighting, special effects, and other techniques that we take for granted now. VR fiction is an entirely new storytelling medium and I am certain it will become a multi-billion dollar business. We humans have filled the Earth. There are still some unknown lands to explore, but not many, unless you include the oceans (which we are rapidly reducing to wet deserts). Space travel is looking less and less viable. We can planet-hop within our own solar system perhaps, though we do so in dread of radiation storms from the Sun. Interplanetary space is inhospitable; interstellar space is even more so. Exposing our fragile bodies to cosmic rays on long journeys is a real non-starter. Unless we can drastically shorten such journeys then we are trapped here. But many of us are explorers by nature.I can already create infinite virtual worlds on my computer. Add to that the ability to use fractal rules to auto-generate infinite diversity, and the growing (excuse the pun) field of artificial life, and we could have endless horizons available to us. We could potentially learn much from these virtual worlds about how the 'real' world works.
And the most controversial: Our biological
bodies are destined to wear out. They have evolved
to do that to enable the genetic diversity that
ensures adaptability and survival of life. I
really don't think we can ever 'fix' that. The
tragedy is that each of us has this wonderful mind
which has needs and abilities far surpassing the
fleeting biological capabilities that gave birth
to it. The mind is information and can be modeled
by computers; not yet, but soon. VR
IS the next 'Killer App!'
VR, The 'CPU Killer,' by Scott Miller --
What might the [Virtual Reality] future look like? David Gelernter, in Mirror Worlds (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/019507906X/qid=1036396476/sr=2-2/ref=sr_2_2/104-3388988-4338319), makes an interesting case for how this technology might one day be used. What are the three people in [a movie without a link] doing? (Prepare to plunge into the imagination of Scott)... <imagine> What if they are three partners in the business of creating bots and avatars for use in VR worlds? What if what we are watching is the VR experience as it will someday exist? What if what we are watching is their view, their customized interface into the software they are using to create the creatures we see? "Mr. Light" does some sort of high-level design, or architecting, "Mr. Industrial" seems to implement the design, while "Miss Magic" animates the creations. All these steps exist today for avatar creation, but today's GUI is NOTHING like what we see in the little movie. Imagine if the OS of the future is an immersive VR experience... </imagine> Why should the Intels, AMDs, IBMs, etc. of the world be excited? WOW this stuff chews up processor cycles! And no matter how powerful a machine you "throw" at the problem, the creative artist ALWAYS needs more. Give us a 100x improvement in processing power (a decade of Moore's law) and it will still not be enough. More polygons, better algorithms, real-time procedural textures, the demand keeps growing. And the real challenge: a better and immersive interface. The last several issues of your e-mail has dealt with the merging of human and machine. "Miss Magic" acts as if she can feel the breeze generated by the wings of that humming bird, perhaps she can, even though the breeze isn't "real". Today we are stuck with limited technology that is good for little more than playing games. What will the future bring? <<-Let's see if I can summarize this in a paragraph->> Network based Virtual Reality will be The Killer App for driving personal (and some day, implanted) computing and networking technology. It will drive demand for processor cycles, memory, storage, bandwidth, and peripherals -- this last one to the point of pushing the human-machine interface into implantable technology. Moore's law predicts a 100 fold increase in machine capability each decade. Currently, VR demand is more than a decade ahead of what the personal computer can deliver, and will remain ahead of the curve well beyond the middle of this century. Network based Virtual Reality technology will create new ways for human-human communication and new paradigms for the human-machine interface. To quote Ted Nelson from the first edition of his seminal 1974 book, Computer Lib/Dream Machines; "If computers are the universal control tool, then let's give kids universes to control." <<-Final thoughts->> Ray Kurzweil has implied that it might be possible to clone a person's mind in only five or six decades (http://www.kurzweilai.net/). Why would we want to do this? How could it be put to use? Or would it only be good for finally having an excuse to talk to yourself?
Personally, I can see living in both the real and
virtual worlds at the same time. If there were a
natural mind and a machine mind that were linked,
then one of you could take your body for a hike to
commune with nature and unwind. While the other of
you could link into the VR Sphere -- creating,
communicating, doing, even working and getting
paid for it. You could be in two places at once. VR Entertainment, by Des Markland --
I think that the next killer app will be in the
entertainment area, namely virtual reality
environments. Coupled with lightweight, very high
resolution headsets such an application (lets call
it Virtual Adventure) would allow you to feel you
are IN a game, film or other audio visual
experience. Immersive Entertainment, by Jim Van Vorst --The next killer app, and one that will require all the horsepower we can throw at it, is turning your home or office PC into a fully immersive entertainment/computing environment, ala "Lawnmower Man." Here, the keyboard, mouse, and monitor all go away since you will be virtually "inside" the computer.
"We are Borg. You will be assimilated." Virtual Reality, by Thor --
Of course the next killer app that will stretch
the hardware capabilities to the limit will be
"virtual reality apps," both for business and
personal use.
As for gaming, how about experiencing incredibly
violent or daring life threatening thrills
firsthand, since you cannot die in virtual
reality? What a great way to overcome fear.
[Or to suffer a heart attack or other
situationally-brought-on illness? I wonder
if there are documented cases of this, considering
the intensity experienced by many a game
player...] Finally how incredible a teaching tool could this be? All types of skills in sports could be practiced over and over with no threat of injury. The list is endless, and we are at the verge of a monstrous quantum leap in computing. And, not to get too much into "matrix" but how nice would it be for the very old and the paralyzed to be able to walk, run, and fly in virtual. Sex will not be too far behind. [The combination of sex] and gaming will probably drive the advances...
Two Words: Virtual & Reality, by Derek Mathias --Two words: 'virtual reality.' When we can use our existing killer apps (and I think I'd add computer games to that list) in a more intuitive, dynamic, 3D environment, I think we'll see another scramble for computational horsepower.
"Altered Reality" Videoconferencing, by Kirk Hutchison --The one that I've been waiting for is SVM (Short Video Messaging). It will require lots of bandwidth, an amazing graphics processor, and a hungry CPU.
Generally, people don't want to send messages with
their -exact- picture and surroundings, and many
are still scared of the videophone idea since they
may be caught [in] a 'not-photo-ready' state.
Hence, the new generation of SVM will use a
predetermined video of the user during such a
'photo-ready' state, and will enhance it with the
facial expressions and lip movements during the
time of recording.
On a related note, this technology will also allow
true virtual conferencing [over constrained
bandwidth] since only gestures will need to be
sent from each of the individuals in the
conference. Their digital signatures will be
sent during the initial synchronization, and live
updates will simply be overlaid during the
discussion. Given that large, high
resolution, flat panel MEMS screens are going to
become affordable in about 3 years, the timetable
will converge appropriately. Fully-Immersive VR, by John M. --How about fully immersive VR? Picture Sandra Bullock in "Demolition Man". Definitely a must have. Experience concerts, rallys, games, any sort of tech training, travel, and of course sex, in a VR environment. Definitely huge.
Robots? Probably another big one: the auto
that drives you to work; housecleaning/security
robots to patrol your home; personnel bodyguard
robots; etc... "Usability" Is The Key, by Nick Gassman --
Jeff, I reckon the killer app for those spare
cycles is usability. In a very few years we'll be
looking back on the computers of today, and
wondering how we ever managed to use them. Think
of Scotty back on Earth (I can't remember which
movie it was) when he prepares to remonstrate with
a Mac because it won't obey his (voice) commands.
Sure, he then uses the keyboard, and gets the Mac
to do things you and I couldn't, but that's the
fiction bit of the SF movie.
It's too easy for techies not to recognise the
issue (I'm sure it's an issue you do recognise).
I'm no slouch with PCs, and at work I'm one of the
guys the others ask if they have a problem. I like
to get into the guts of things, and read the
hardcore journals. But now, even with XP, when I
check the processes in Task Manager to find that
servicehost has multiple instances, and I can't
figure out which is causing my problem... then I
bang my head against the wall.
PCs still can't tell you what's wrong with them,
or how to use them. The reams of 'hot tips' in
magazines, and semi-expert newsletters attest to
the fact that they are usually not set up to get
the most out of them, or sufficiently personalised
for most people. But most people can't understand
the instructions on how improve things.
So if someone can build these things into an OS,
or if someone can produce an app that will sort it
out - they'll be in the money. Holographic Displays, by Wil Marshman --The killer app in 2010 may involve holography. Imagine a "PDA" being able to "project" the life-size image of Brittany Spears or Justin Timberlake dancing to one of their songs in your teenager's bedroom such that he/she could dance along. Or it could project an image of a mechanic repairing a complicated airplane problem such that the learning mechanic could follow along step-by-step. Or it could project a skier doing some turns while you follow him on an interconnected device that tracks your movements and makes suggestions for "up-weighting earlier". If the networks of the time can provide the bandwidth, new holograms could be accessed via the net and commerce could support the "killer app". My idea came from:
Napster
"Holo-CAD Drawing", by M. Williams --
I think the next killer app that will drive the
need for computer speed has already been invented
[(and seen in the form of special effects] in
movies - take the original Star Wars as one
example); it's really just waiting for the display
device - and perhaps the horsepower - to make it
practical. 3-D Output; Virtual and Real, by Geoff Keller --I bet your average size holodeck or even a full length feature 3-D holo-flick action movie could easily chew through at least 11 or 12 gigahertz of processing power and 8 - 10 terabytes of memory. [Vast amounts more of processing and other power, from what I've been reading. JRH] Or how about a transporter-like "3-D FAX machine". That could use a good chunk of power as well. [Remember "stereolithography"? Such 3D printers already exist (see http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/19991018.html#_Toc464536634), so extending them "online" would seem feasible. JRH] Just look to your local independent TV station running on series or another of Star Trek and I bet you can find at least 10 items that could chew up that much processing power, and more. No matter how much processing power we have, we will always find ways to use it. Pushing the boundaries is what makes us human.
Extending Reality:
Bandwidth - The Enabler, by M. Richter --
With advances in broadband that should take place
during this time [period], I ... envision a few
ideas:
"Shop-at-home", a virtual-reality approach to
shopping which provides a very high resolution
experience for shopping. The recently
announced ability to touch over the internet would
make fabric choices easy. New algorithms
which provide mapping a person's physical
characteristics would provide the consumer with
visual feedback, while providing the alteration
shop specifics regarding the customer's specific
needs.
"Home movies", a video mapping and animation
application to allow people to take home movies,
perform visual effect editing, voice-over and
Foley dubbing, and create stories in a very short
time. This would prove especially valuable
for gifted and talented amateurs (producing at
least early "Star Wars" quality special effects as
standard). Create your own exotic vacation
experience.
"Design your own home", a virtual-reality approach
which provides true real-time walk-thru with the
ability to move walls and furniture around with a
simple "push" or "pull". The walk-thru would
use VR eyeglasses, providing the average consumer
with the abilities that architects see today as
cutting-edge. This could also prove a boon
to the professional designers and homebuilders. "Virtual Museum", a virtual-reality approach to viewing antiquities. Museums would have their art scanned in full 3-D. Customers would pay a fee to enter the museum, and the visual effects would give them images that rivaled life. This would also provide the ability to linger at any exhibit for any length of time, and to view the collections that are not usually on display. Could easily be extended to the scientific community for collaborative research (again, using the emerging "touch" technology".
Bandwidth!, by John Matrow --John provides his answers to the next Killer Apps by quoting from the Internet2 faq (http://apps.internet2.edu/html/faq.html), written by Ted Hanss, Internet2 Director for Applications Development:
What's the "killer app" for Internet2? The fun thing about participating in Internet2 is working with all the creative minds who are working to create the next generation of applications. But, there's no way to tell what the "killer app," if any, might be. Instead, we like to describe four killer attributes that you'll find in the most compelling applications. The first is interactive collaboration environments, where you can truly interact with others without the barriers of distance. The second is to provide common access to remote resources, such as telescopes and microscopes. The third is using the network as a "backplane" to build network-wide computation and data services, such as those under development in the Grid. The fourth attribute is displaying information through virtual reality environments—moving from statics graphics and images to moving, three-dimensional animations.
No, really, what's the "killer app"? Well, the area that will provide the widest benefit and largest aggregate use of the Internet2 network capacity is digital video. Video-based applications cover everything from video conferencing to on-demand content to remote control of microscopes and other instruments.
Video Conferencing, by Tom Williams --
This one's been on my mind for years. Given
more-or-less ubiquitous broadband capability, I
think people at work and at home will discover how
much communication is enhanced by others' facial
expressions. Video Instant Messaging, by Mark McCoskey --
Once broadband is more pervasive, even more so
with the upcoming Internet 2, I think VIM (Video
Instant Messaging) will become a killer app. Virtual Visiting, by Derrick Davis --
"Digital Buddy" is a life size holographic multi
user, real-time, visiting software and interface.
Forget your phone; be with your loved ones no
matter where they are on the planet. Virtual Tours, and More, by Byron Law --
I imagine that one killer application that is
going to drive processor speeds and storage
capacities is going to be immersive video.
That is, video that is recorded omni-directionally
and subsequently is viewed omni-directionally.
http://www.fpvideo.com/
The In(puts) and the Out(puts), by Bart Wessel --What we are going to use all the processing power for? Human interfacing. (Aren't we already?). Let's face it: most of us deliver input using cumbersome mouse and keyboard manipulations (many of us still cannot type fluently, and plenty of us get to suffer from RSI). With respect to output: we get to sit all day long in a fixed position relative to a display device that is made up out of individually discernible dots. Ha! My guess is that we're going to see input recognition (speech, gesture, facial expression, ...) and output generation (projection, 3d-holographical vision, ...).
If only I could put my facial expression at this
very moment into words, you'd see what I mean. "Tactile," by Dr. Ed Reifman --Imagine, say, by the year 2012, with even pre-molecular processors, the p-o-r-n-o and computer gaming industry of 2002 will seem like a blip on the screen when one can walk into your local Fry's and purchase the latest 'Whoever does Dallas' "tactile", (T-DVD?) and instead of a joy stick, well you get the picture. PC As Phone, by Martin Pensak --In addition to just talking through the PC's [microphone and speakers, for Internet-based phone calls], let the PC be a 'smart' answering machine - dealing with taking messages when I'm not available and managing them better than just 'listen and push the delete button' on my dumb answering machine. Maybe customized messages for when specific people 'call'. And of course conference calling, stored phone lists integrated with public directory lookup, etc. Not to mention moving into video in addition to the audio. Embedded Full-speed Video, by Bobski Masson --
I don't have a catchy name, but the next killer
app is going to be the use of full-frame,
full-speed video in all the other killer apps!
This coincides with the processing power to handle
such media, as well as the increase in web
bandwidth to handle it.
My Life, My Bits:
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