The Harrow Technology Report
http://www.TheHarrowGroup.com
Insight,
analysis, and commentary on the
innovations and trends of contemporary computing,
and on its growing number of related technologies.
An ongoing journey towards understanding,
and profiting from, a world of exponential
technological growth!
Copyright © 2001-2005, Jeffrey R. Harrow. All rights
reserved.
Email: Jeff@TheHarrowGroup.com
YOUR
Views of the Next 'Killer Apps.'
A Special Report
Adjunct to this week's
issue, at
http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20021118/20021118.htm
Nov. 18, 2002
In a recent issue (http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20021104/20021104.htm#_Toc23925811)
we explored how, in about eight years, commodity
CPU chips may be running at 15,000 megahertz (15
gigahertz) and be powered by one-billion
transistors. That's some SERIOUS commodity
computing power.
Considering that in Nov, 2002
the latest and greatest will be performing at
3,060 megahertz (3.06 gigahertz), and that most of
us would be very hard-pressed to use all of that
power (excluding scientific and power users, and
gamers), I suggested that what we REALLY need to
rekindle the "PC Revolution" is a set of new
"Killer Apps;" their features will be SO
compelling that, once again, we'll all be on the
edges of our seats waiting for the next notes of
Moore's Law to hit the shelves.
But what will those Killer
Apps be? And so far, the software industry
hasn't come up with a new one for quite some time.
So I asked YOU what
applications YOU think might again light up the PC
world, so that your ideas might spur software
developers in these direction. Your
responses have been, well, 'bountiful' to say the
least, and I'm going to share a selection of them
with you here.
I've taken the liberty of
trying to make sense of this technological
future-brouhaha by consolidating them roughly into
sections. But as you'll see, many ideas want
to span a number of areas.
May you, and the developers
who read this, succeed in again lighting up our
"PC lives."
Click on either
the Categories, or on the individual
suggestion links, in the Table of Contents below:
Virtual Reality.
-
Virtual Reality, by Miriam English --
-
VR, The 'CPU Killer,' by Scott Miller --
-
VR Entertainment, by Des Markland --
-
Immersive Entertainment, by Jim Van Vorst --
-
Virtual Reality, by Thor --
-
Two Words: Virtual & Reality, by Derek Mathias --
-
"Altered Reality" Videoconferencing, by Kirk
Hutchinson --
-
Fully-Immersive VR, by John M. --
-
"Usability" Is The Key, by Nick Gassman --
-
Holographic Displays, by Wil Marshman --
-
"Holo-CAD Drawing", by M. Williams --
-
3-D Output; Virtual and Real, by Geoff Keller --
Extending Reality:
-
Bandwidth - The Enabler, by M. Richter --
-
Bandwidth!, by John Matrow --
-
Video Conferencing, by Tom Williams --
-
Video Instant Messaging, by Mark McCoskey --
-
Virtual Visiting, by Derrick Davis --
-
Virtual Tours, and More, by Byron Law --
-
The In(puts) and the Out(puts), by Bart Wessel --
-
"Tactile," by Dr. Ed Reifman --
-
PC As Phone, by Martin Pensak --
-
Embedded Full-speed Video, by Bobski Masson --
My Life, My Bits:
Digital (Two-Way) Voice:
-
True Voice Response, by Richard Dinning --
-
The Butler, by John Smith --
-
The "Other" Butler, by Max Rible --
-
The Butler, Times-3, by Kim Mains --
-
Computers That Listen, by Jeff Allen -
-
"SpeakEasy," by Rocky Rawstern --
-
Communicating Verbally, by Andrew Clark --
-
Superb, And "Learning," Speech Recognition, by
Jack Lipscomb --
-
Making Computers "Disappear," by Jeff A.K. --
-
Voice Recognition Will Enable MANY Apps, by Ronald
Kaledas --
-
REALLY Effective Voice Recognition, by Adrian
Salone --
-
"Listening," But to the BRAIN (and more), by Shawn
Gold --
-
The Invisible User Interface, and "Vertical
Intelligence," by Henry Nash --
-
Personal Robots, by Martin Spencer --
-
Video Editing Power-Up, by Mel Lammers --
Interface, Usability, and Moore:
-
The More Things Change, The More They Stay The
Same, by Chris Denver --
-
"Interface," by Cameron Reilly --
-
The 'Big Book,' by Michael Siwinski --
-
Home Entertainment Center, by Joel Millett --
-
Complexity - Of Movies, Liberty and More, by Grant
Perkins --
-
Remote Medicine, by Joe Laberge --
-
Video Recognition, by Michael Wiedower --
-
The Memory Explorer, by Laurie Mersereau --
-
Knowledge: Vast & Powerful, by Roy Roebuck --
-
"The Data Interpolator," by Paul Edstrom --
-
"HAL", The Ultimate Digital Assistant," by Carl
Keller --
-
"Personal" Power To The People!, by Damon Turnbull
--
-
The Perfect Assistant, by Robert Dickson --
Games.
A.I. (Not The Movie):
CPU-Cycle Consumers:
In Classes All Their Own:
-
The Jean-Luc School of Computer Interfaces, by
Jack Smyth --
-
Genetic Sequencing, and More, by Mike Miller --
-
Compression, by Richard Johnston --
-
Several Visions, by Bill --
-
Security, by Ralph Broom --
-
Wireless Mesh Networking, by Rob Looker --
-
"The Mark of the Beast" Redux, by Tom Williams --
-
Legal 'Enabling' of ID-related Killer Apps, by
Bruce Campbell --
-
Disaster Warning Network, by John Flanagan --
-
It's The Database,
Really, by Ed Beneville
-
'Easy-To-Use'
Common Apps Could Be The Next Killer App, by Penny
Pagliaro
I
build virtual worlds for a living. Virtual Reality
is definitely the next big thing. It feels the way
graphical interfaces were in the days of 8-bit
processors -- we could understand the potential,
but in those early days they were slow and clunky,
and took up too much memory.
Realtime VR, especially in the form of VRML
(Virtual Reality Modeling Language) has come a
long way in the last several years, but is still
in desperate need of faster processors and bigger
machines. There is great potential for VR in many
areas, but a few deserve special mention:
Multiuser VR is a brilliant communication tool.
It places very little load on networks; the end
machines do the bulk of the work, send just
position and action info, unlike a video feed
which requires massive amounts of info to be
streamed. Discrimination on the basis of race,
sex, physical disability, and physical
attractiveness become irrelevant in VR -- you
choose how you present yourself.
VR fiction is the next step beyond movies -- it
is like being able to walk around inside the
story. Sure, it is hard to do, and people are just
starting to develop the language and tools for it,
but consider how different the first movies were
from stage shows or radio. Early attempts at
movies didn't use editing, or panning. They didn't
have sound or dollies or any of the sophisticated
lighting, special effects, and other techniques
that we take for granted now. VR fiction is an
entirely new storytelling medium and I am certain
it will become a multi-billion dollar business.
We humans have filled the Earth. There are still
some unknown lands to explore, but not many,
unless you include the oceans (which we are
rapidly reducing to wet deserts). Space travel is
looking less and less viable. We can planet-hop
within our own solar system perhaps, though we do
so in dread of radiation storms from the Sun.
Interplanetary space is inhospitable; interstellar
space is even more so. Exposing our fragile bodies
to cosmic rays on long journeys is a real
non-starter. Unless we can drastically shorten
such journeys then we are trapped here. But many
of us are explorers by nature.I can already create
infinite virtual worlds on my computer. Add to
that the ability to use fractal rules to
auto-generate infinite diversity, and the growing
(excuse the pun) field of artificial life, and we
could have endless horizons available to us. We
could potentially learn much from these virtual
worlds about how the 'real' world works.
And the most controversial: Our biological
bodies are destined to wear out. They have evolved
to do that to enable the genetic diversity that
ensures adaptability and survival of life. I
really don't think we can ever 'fix' that. The
tragedy is that each of us has this wonderful mind
which has needs and abilities far surpassing the
fleeting biological capabilities that gave birth
to it. The mind is information and can be modeled
by computers; not yet, but soon.
When we are able to live on inside computers, VR
will be a natural place for us to live. Whereas
mechanical systems will always wear out,
electronics has no moving parts, and properly
designed could perhaps last hundreds, thousands,
maybe millions of years. And don't make the
mistake of thinking that living such a life would
be fake. People would still think great things,
build great works of art and marvellous tools,
love, and learn... and there is no doubt that they
would continue to be involved in the 'outside'
world. What would people be capable of being freed
from the need for food and shelter, and able to
learn for many centuries? And imagine the resource
that those millions of minds could be for those
dealing with problems in the 'outside' world.
VR
IS the next 'Killer App!'
VR,
The
'CPU Killer,' by Scott Miller --
What might the [Virtual Reality] future look like?
David Gelernter, in Mirror Worlds (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/019507906X/qid=1036396476/sr=2-2/ref=sr_2_2/104-3388988-4338319),
makes an interesting case for how this technology
might one day be used. What are the three people
in [a movie without a link] doing? (Prepare to
plunge into the imagination of Scott)...
<imagine>
What if they are three partners in the business of
creating bots and avatars for use in VR worlds?
What if what we are watching is the VR experience
as it will someday exist? What if what we are
watching is their view, their customized interface
into the software they are using to create the
creatures we see? "Mr. Light" does some sort of
high-level design, or architecting, "Mr.
Industrial" seems to implement the design, while
"Miss Magic" animates the creations. All these
steps exist today for avatar creation, but today's
GUI is NOTHING like what we see in the little
movie. Imagine if the OS of the future is an
immersive VR experience... </imagine>
Why should the Intels, AMDs, IBMs, etc. of the
world be excited?
WOW this stuff chews up processor cycles! And no
matter how powerful a machine you "throw" at the
problem, the creative artist ALWAYS needs more.
Give us a 100x improvement in processing power (a
decade of Moore's law) and it will still not be
enough. More polygons, better algorithms,
real-time procedural textures, the demand keeps
growing. And the real challenge: a better and
immersive interface. The last several issues of
your e-mail has dealt with the merging of human
and machine. "Miss Magic" acts as if she can feel
the breeze generated by the wings of that humming
bird, perhaps she can, even though the breeze
isn't "real".
Today we are stuck with limited technology that is
good for little more than playing games. What will
the future bring?
<<-Let's see if I can summarize this in a
paragraph->>
Network based Virtual Reality will be The Killer
App for driving personal (and some day, implanted)
computing and networking technology. It will drive
demand for processor cycles, memory, storage,
bandwidth, and peripherals -- this last one to the
point of pushing the human-machine interface into
implantable technology. Moore's law predicts a 100
fold increase in machine capability each decade.
Currently, VR demand is more than a decade ahead
of what the personal computer can deliver, and
will remain ahead of the curve well beyond the
middle of this century. Network based Virtual
Reality technology will create new ways for
human-human communication and new paradigms for
the human-machine interface. To quote Ted Nelson
from the first edition of his seminal 1974 book,
Computer Lib/Dream Machines; "If computers are the
universal control tool, then let's give kids
universes to control."
<<-Final thoughts->>
Ray Kurzweil has implied that it might be possible
to clone a person's mind in only five or six
decades (http://www.kurzweilai.net/).
Why would we want to do this? How could it be put
to use? Or would it only be good for finally
having an excuse to talk to yourself?
Personally, I can see living in both the real and
virtual worlds at the same time. If there were a
natural mind and a machine mind that were linked,
then one of you could take your body for a hike to
commune with nature and unwind. While the other of
you could link into the VR Sphere -- creating,
communicating, doing, even working and getting
paid for it. You could be in two places at once.
I think that the next killer app will be in the
entertainment area, namely virtual reality
environments. Coupled with lightweight, very high
resolution headsets such an application (lets call
it Virtual Adventure) would allow you to feel you
are IN a game, film or other audio visual
experience.
The next killer app, and one that will require all
the horsepower we can throw at it, is turning your
home or office PC into a fully immersive
entertainment/computing environment, ala
"Lawnmower Man." Here, the keyboard, mouse,
and monitor all go away since you will be
virtually "inside" the computer.
"We are Borg. You will be assimilated."
Of course the next killer app that will stretch
the hardware capabilities to the limit will be
"virtual reality apps," both for business and
personal use.
The first ones will be crude and simple gaming,
but as the hardware gets better there will be
incredible business applications. Imagine walking
into your companies' database in virtual reality
and having any information at your fingertips to
manipulate as you please. What about truly virtual
meetings for cyber-commuters - eliminate the need
for offices.
As for gaming, how about experiencing incredibly
violent or daring life threatening thrills
firsthand, since you cannot die in virtual
reality? What a great way to overcome fear.
[Or to suffer a heart attack or other
situationally-brought-on illness? I wonder
if there are documented cases of this, considering
the intensity experienced by many a game
player...]
Finally how incredible a teaching tool could this
be? All types of skills in sports could be
practiced over and over with no threat of injury.
The list is endless, and we are at the verge of a
monstrous quantum leap in computing.
And, not to get too much into "matrix" but how
nice would it be for the very old and the
paralyzed to be able to walk, run, and fly in
virtual. Sex will not be too far behind.
[The combination of sex] and gaming will probably
drive the advances...
Two words: 'virtual reality.' When we can use our
existing killer apps (and I think I'd add computer
games to that list) in a more intuitive, dynamic,
3D environment, I think we'll see another scramble
for computational horsepower.
The one that I've been waiting for is SVM (Short
Video Messaging). It will require lots of
bandwidth, an amazing graphics processor, and a
hungry CPU.
Generally, people don't want to send messages with
their -exact- picture and surroundings, and many
are still scared of the videophone idea since they
may be caught [in] a 'not-photo-ready' state.
Hence, the new generation of SVM will use a
predetermined video of the user during such a
'photo-ready' state, and will enhance it with the
facial expressions and lip movements during the
time of recording.
The CPU and Graphics cards to do this are
currently just above the high end of today, but
will easily be [available] by middle to late next
year. Hand-helds will be able to handle this
within 4+ years. No more worries about what
you look like.
And the bonus app that will make this REALLY
desirable, will replace the live background and
noise with a dynamically configured virtual place
and sounds. It will be particularly useful
to youths that want to fool parents/peers into
thinking they are somewhere else, since sending
the real video will always be an option.
:-)
On a related note, this technology will also allow
true virtual conferencing [over constrained
bandwidth] since only gestures will need to be
sent from each of the individuals in the
conference. Their digital signatures will be
sent during the initial synchronization, and live
updates will simply be overlaid during the
discussion. Given that large, high
resolution, flat panel MEMS screens are going to
become affordable in about 3 years, the timetable
will converge appropriately.
Fully-Immersive VR, by John M.
--
How about fully immersive VR? Picture Sandra
Bullock in "Demolition Man". Definitely a
must have. Experience concerts, rallys,
games, any sort of tech training, travel, and of
course sex, in a VR environment. Definitely
huge.
Robots? Probably another big one: the auto
that drives you to work; housecleaning/security
robots to patrol your home; personnel bodyguard
robots; etc...
Jeff, I reckon the killer app for those spare
cycles is usability. In a very few years we'll be
looking back on the computers of today, and
wondering how we ever managed to use them. Think
of Scotty back on Earth (I can't remember which
movie it was) when he prepares to remonstrate with
a Mac because it won't obey his (voice) commands.
Sure, he then uses the keyboard, and gets the Mac
to do things you and I couldn't, but that's the
fiction bit of the SF movie.
It's too easy for techies not to recognise the
issue (I'm sure it's an issue you do recognise).
I'm no slouch with PCs, and at work I'm one of the
guys the others ask if they have a problem. I like
to get into the guts of things, and read the
hardcore journals. But now, even with XP, when I
check the processes in Task Manager to find that
servicehost has multiple instances, and I can't
figure out which is causing my problem... then I
bang my head against the wall.
PCs still can't tell you what's wrong with them,
or how to use them. The reams of 'hot tips' in
magazines, and semi-expert newsletters attest to
the fact that they are usually not set up to get
the most out of them, or sufficiently personalised
for most people. But most people can't understand
the instructions on how improve things.
So if someone can build these things into an OS,
or if someone can produce an app that will sort it
out - they'll be in the money.
The killer app in 2010 may involve holography.
Imagine a "PDA" being able to "project" the
life-size image of Brittany Spears or Justin
Timberlake dancing to one of their songs in your
teenager's bedroom such that he/she could dance
along.
Or it could project an image of a mechanic
repairing a complicated airplane problem such that
the learning mechanic could follow along
step-by-step.
Or it could project a skier doing some turns while
you follow him on an interconnected device that
tracks your movements and makes suggestions for
"up-weighting earlier".
If the networks of the time can provide the
bandwidth, new holograms could be accessed via the
net and commerce could support the "killer app".
My idea came from:
Napster
Keyboard projection technology
Teenager buying enthusiasm
MTV/MP3 popularity
Personal life experiences
I think the next killer app that will drive the
need for computer speed has already been invented
[(and seen in the form of special effects] in
movies - take the original Star Wars as one
example); it's really just waiting for the display
device - and perhaps the horsepower - to make it
practical.
For lack of a better name, call it "Holo-CAD
Drawing," where you can get a true 3-D view of
your designed object, along with the ability to
zoom in and get a detailed look (using routines
that adjust the image so it still looks smoothly
real.) It will be the next boon for
Engineering.
Imagine creating a product and being able to
display it (literally) exactly as it will look
when built. The obvious game implications are also
there. The real limit to this, currently, is a
display device that would permit a seamless
display from any angle, even top-down. Figure that
out, and you have something that will really drive
increases in processing power, once again.
I
bet your average size holodeck or even a full
length feature 3-D holo-flick action movie could
easily chew through at least 11 or 12 gigahertz of
processing power and 8 - 10 terabytes of memory.
[Vast amounts more of processing and other
power, from what I've been reading. JRH]
Or how about a transporter-like "3-D FAX machine".
That could use a good chunk of power as well.
[Remember "stereolithography"? Such 3D
printers already exist (see
http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/19991018.html#_Toc464536634),
so extending them "online" would seem feasible.
JRH]
Just look to your local independent TV station
running on series or another of Star Trek and I
bet you can find at least 10 items that could chew
up that much processing power, and more.
No matter how much processing power we have, we
will always find ways to use it. Pushing the
boundaries is what makes us human.
With advances in broadband that should take place
during this time [period], I ... envision a few
ideas:
"Shop-at-home", a virtual-reality approach to
shopping which provides a very high resolution
experience for shopping. The recently
announced ability to touch over the internet would
make fabric choices easy. New algorithms
which provide mapping a person's physical
characteristics would provide the consumer with
visual feedback, while providing the alteration
shop specifics regarding the customer's specific
needs.
"Home movies", a video mapping and animation
application to allow people to take home movies,
perform visual effect editing, voice-over and
Foley dubbing, and create stories in a very short
time. This would prove especially valuable
for gifted and talented amateurs (producing at
least early "Star Wars" quality special effects as
standard). Create your own exotic vacation
experience.
"Design your own home", a virtual-reality approach
which provides true real-time walk-thru with the
ability to move walls and furniture around with a
simple "push" or "pull". The walk-thru would
use VR eyeglasses, providing the average consumer
with the abilities that architects see today as
cutting-edge. This could also prove a boon
to the professional designers and homebuilders.
"Virtual Museum", a virtual-reality approach to
viewing antiquities. Museums would have
their art scanned in full 3-D. Customers
would pay a fee to enter the museum, and the
visual effects would give them images that rivaled
life. This would also provide the ability to
linger at any exhibit for any length of time, and
to view the collections that are not usually on
display. Could easily be extended to the
scientific community for collaborative research
(again, using the emerging "touch" technology".
Naturally, "virtual porn"... With the
virtual-reality visual effects, combined with what
can only be imagined in the "touch" arena...
Not sure how far you wanted to envision the
possibilities! <g>
I can imagine a few more, but it seems the future
"killer" apps will focus more around consumer
experience and entertainment than around utility.
Witness the browser in the refrigerator (http://reviews.zdnet.co.uk/review/28/1/1600.html).
John provides his answers to the next Killer Apps
by quoting from the Internet2 faq
(http://apps.internet2.edu/html/faq.html),
written by Ted Hanss, Internet2 Director for
Applications Development:
What's the "killer app" for Internet2?
The fun thing about participating in Internet2
is working with all the creative minds who are
working to create the next generation of
applications. But, there's no way to tell what the
"killer app," if any, might be. Instead, we like
to describe four killer attributes that you'll
find in the most compelling applications. The
first is interactive collaboration environments,
where you can truly interact with others without
the barriers of distance. The second is to provide
common access to remote resources, such as
telescopes and microscopes. The third is using the
network as a "backplane" to build network-wide
computation and data services, such as those under
development in the
Grid. The fourth attribute is displaying
information through virtual reality
environments—moving from statics graphics and
images to moving, three-dimensional animations.
No, really, what's the "killer app"?
Well, the area that will provide the widest
benefit and largest aggregate use of the Internet2
network capacity is digital video. Video-based
applications cover everything from video
conferencing to on-demand content to remote
control of microscopes and other instruments.
This one's been on my mind for years. Given
more-or-less ubiquitous broadband capability, I
think people at work and at home will discover how
much communication is enhanced by others' facial
expressions.
This will lead, in turn, to major changes in
business and educational travel decisions, and I
seriously believe it will change our culture to an
extent not seen since the telegraph. Where will
processing power come into it? Echo
suppression, which is the current bane of PC-based
videoconferencing.
Once broadband is more pervasive, even more so
with the upcoming Internet 2, I think VIM (Video
Instant Messaging) will become a killer app.
With digital USB stereo headsets, and USB2 &
FireWire web cams, we will have crystal clear,
full motion video and audio. This will surely
replace the home phone (but not cell phones, of
course). This could be for both one-on-one or
conference calls. This is especially useful for
friends who now live long distances from each
other, yet want to stay connected. This could be
integrated into one's computer or used as a stand
alone video phone device. All of this with no long
distance phone charges. And in time, this could
evolve into your MMORPG where you mentioned
lifelike virtual 3D coffee shops. People would
have no excuse for not keeping in contact. And
this would be a ... lot cheaper than an airline
ticket.
On the other hand, I really like the TiVo, Replay,
Digeo/Moxi devices. But I would rather incorporate
this into the computer where I can easily upgrade
(add) a larger hard drive or TV tuner card. This
will be the entertainment server idea like Windows
new Media Center, but without any imposed
limitation. Ideally this would have two HDTV tuner
cards (one to watch and one to record, or perhaps
record with both at the same time), 2 to 4 120+ GB
hard drives, a DVD burner, wireless Ethernet (a, b
and g) for sharing amongst other devices
(computers, TV's, PlayStation 2's, stereo's, etc.)
and Bluetooth for connecting wireless keyboards,
tablets, etc. Couple this with a one click
TitanTV.com-like scheduler and you have a simple
DVR/PVR.
(Currently, some of these capabilities are already
in bleeding-edge products, although not all of
them in any one product, and none of which have
yet been leapt-on en-mass by consumers. But
this may be a leg-up for Mark's ideas.
"Digital Buddy" is a life size holographic multi
user, real-time, visiting software and interface.
It allows you be with friends and family from far
away, yet with the visual and auditory feeling of
reality. Since it is multi user enabled, you can
have several friends "over" at the same time to
watch movies and play games. Your friends appear
either in your monitor glasses, contacts, or
projected into the room where your holographic
projector is placed. Each user has the ability to
provide a width / depth / height of their
projection and reception to include the necessary
surroundings.
Forget your phone; be with your loved ones no
matter where they are on the planet.
Virtual Tours, and More, by Byron Law --
I imagine that one killer application that is
going to drive processor speeds and storage
capacities is going to be immersive video.
That is, video that is recorded omni-directionally
and subsequently is viewed omni-directionally.
There are many that are working on and perfecting
the recording side of this, but viewing is still
relegated to a mono-directional monitor with the
viewing angle adjusted by mouse or keyboard,
rather than a more natural user worn system that
detects head or eye movement to adjust viewing
angle within the video. Once immersive video
is perfected to the point that the user is under
the illusion (at least visually and aurally) that
they are actually at the remote site, I think many
will start subscribing to various tours and
experiences.
How often have you heard the complaint of those
who visited the Smithsonian that they wish they
had a couple of weeks to spend in there?
With immersive video, they will have all the time
they want (within their subscription) to "roam"
the Smithsonian (or any other museum, tour, or
countless other experiences exploring every corner
of the globe and beyond) and from the comfort of
their own home. Field trips for schools will
be as simple as scheduling a short walk down to
their library and donning their immersive video
headsets. Schools will have a much greater
variety of experiences to expose the children to
(that coordinate with a greater variety of
topics), with reduced liability and safety
concerns. Maybe someday we might even have
sophisticated immersive outer space based
telescopes (with the requisite blocks looking back
towards Earth against peeping Toms). We
could use more astronomers scanning space in every
direction possible. We might even see law
enforcement using the footage from the blocked
portion to better solve crimes.
Here are a few sites I know of that deal in
immersive video recording technologies:
http://www.fpvideo.com/
http://www.behere.com/
http://immersivemedia.com/menu.html
http://www.ipix.com/
http://www.spincam.com/
http://www.iqeye.com/mkt/immvid.htm
The
In(puts) and the
Out(puts), by Bart Wessel --
What we are going to use all the processing power
for? Human interfacing. (Aren't we
already?).
Let's face it: most of us deliver input using
cumbersome mouse and keyboard manipulations (many
of us still cannot type fluently, and plenty of us
get to suffer from RSI). With respect to output:
we get to sit all day long in a fixed position
relative to a display device that is made up
out of individually discernible dots. Ha!
My guess is that we're going to see input
recognition (speech, gesture, facial expression,
...) and output generation (projection,
3d-holographical vision, ...).
If only I could put my facial expression at this
very moment into words, you'd see what I mean.
Imagine, say, by the year 2012, with even
pre-molecular processors, the p-o-r-n-o and
computer gaming industry of 2002 will seem like a
blip on the screen when one can walk into your
local Fry's and purchase the latest 'Whoever does
Dallas' "tactile", (T-DVD?) and instead of a joy
stick, well you get the picture.
In addition to just talking through the PC's
[microphone and speakers, for Internet-based phone
calls], let the PC be a 'smart' answering machine
- dealing with taking messages when I'm not
available and managing them better than just
'listen and push the delete button' on my dumb
answering machine.
Maybe customized messages for when specific people
'call'. And of course conference calling, stored
phone lists integrated with public directory
lookup, etc. Not to mention moving into video in
addition to the audio.
I don't have a catchy name, but the next killer
app is going to be the use of full-frame,
full-speed video in all the other killer apps!
This coincides with the processing power to handle
such media, as well as the increase in web
bandwidth to handle it.
As for the killer app, your newsletter suggests a
version in the HAN piece
(http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/
20021104/20021104.htm#_Toc23925814).
Coupled with advances in storage, we could create
the personal recorder, a Tivo for each of our
lives. With an eyeglass camera and audio recorder,
we could easily have exact replications of the
vital times (from many perspectives). Sure, it's
fun at Mardi Gras but we could also precisely
record a business meeting, political event,
wedding, first date, what have you, and the
processing power would enhance not only the
recording but also the search and recall. You
never forget anything. What would this do to
marital quarrels?
If we could ever get past the bandwidth/regulatory
issues, we could open a much larger can of
possibilities but that is a legal issue with no
end in sight. In the short term, though, there are
strong possibilities for adapting mesh network
communications in unrestricted bandwidth ranges to
at least entertainment applications, such as
interactive games in a crowd (or even a mall).
Couple this with the processing power and you
could have some potent fun. Ideally, you could
also create a wireless mesh Internet but that
needs large-scale population density.
(This
suggestion was short and sweet ("life recorders"),
but Swift is talking about sufficient audio, video
(and perhaps more, like GPS) inputs to a massive
data store, that will duitifully and invisibly
record every aspect of every moment of your life.
(I just hope it comes with a "Pause" button...))
The Killer App, nick-named simply "Real Life", is
real-time video rendering--without a trace of
blockiness or delay.
This technology would transform any device with a
screen (laptop, tablet, palm pilot, cell phone,
digital cameras and recorders, even eye glasses)
into a two-way video camera that one could hold
up, pan around and instantly transmit the video to
another user. The ultimate extension of this
technology would be for one person to wear eye
glasses on a vacation and be able to look around
and transmit every last thing he or she sees,
continuously, to a recording device back home or
live to another user wearing matching
glasses--such that the second person forgets
he/she isn't seeing these sights first hand.
This would completely transform the movie, home
movie, news, and TV industries, as well as
military reconnaissance and battlefield tactics.
There would be many linkages to Internet,
advertising, on-line gaming, on-demand downloading
of TV shows and movies, etc. More simply,
one could even hang "pictures" in one's home or
office that are linked to on-line cameras at
national parks or art museums to provide a
"window" on art, or on the rest of the world.
Home and office art that changes with the viewer's
whim. Suddenly, any device at all could
double as a TV screen or a videophone.
Such rendering would consume tons of bandwidth and
memory, forcing the development of better
graphics-rendering cards and much faster CPUs/chip
sets, bigger and faster memories, and wireless
bandwidth. But live video rendering would
have a market that subsumes every last device with
a screen. A couple of pins on the frame of the eye
glasses could allow the wearer to stop, start,
freeze-frame, black-out, or add effects to
whatever he or she was seeing/recording. One
could even "import" more interesting, exotic
backgrounds to make the average walk or ride to
work more interesting. Truly seeing the world
through "rose colored glasses."
Other advances might be HDTV format for these
glasses or video in general; some graphics
algorithms that corrects for haze, or overly
bright sunlight, or dust/pollution; and built-in
binocular function for distance seeing, a la Luke
Skywalker in the first Star Wars.
Another, much more simple technological
improvement would be a computer with "instant on."
No more waiting 2-5 minutes for a computer to
boot. This would make such a great selling
point--think how many minutes are wasted each and
every day waiting for your system just to boot up.
(Simplest thing here would be a computer that you
never had to turn off, that went into some natural
safe mode or hibernation state that kept it secure
from the rest of the on-line world).
Let's call it the "Personal Companion" ( PC ?)
A voice recognition, interactive, multi-purpose
virtual companion. A program that could have
a custom or randomly generated personality that
would learn a user's preferences likes and
dislikes. After a "get to know you" period the
"PC", in addition to mundane tasks such as
schedule planning, important date notices, Web
ferreting, house monitoring etc., would also sense
any tension in the user's voice and prompt him/her
into, for example, conversation designed to
relieve stress.
The PC could also periodically run a series of
health questions [on a schedule] depending on the
age/health of the user.
And the PC could design custom entertainment
packages. For instance, it could automatically
download preferred music, movies, Web site
information, TV shows and sporting events, which
could then be enjoyed at leisure. Anyway I think
you get the idea.