Where We're Heading

I've been writing for many years that the only constant is change -- yet with these changes come undreamed-of opportunities.  And I'm excited about the incredible changes and opportunities that we have ahead of us, such as:

• How computing power is set to explode through advances in traditional semiconductor technology, molecular computing, quantum computing, DNA computing, and in ways we have yet to consider;
  
• How storage densities and fiber bandwidth are improving so fast that they leave the vaunted Moore's Law in the dust; 
  
• How nanotechnology is preparing the way to change the very nature of the "things" around us; 
  
• And many more.

And most importantly, of what happens as all of these advances "come together," synergistically giving us far more than the "mere" sum of the parts.

An Example.

You may be familiar with the concept of the "Space Elevator" that was popularized by science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke (http://flightprojects.msfc.nasa.gov/fd02_elev.html  and http://www.spacedaily.com/news/future-01f.html).  

Basically, this is an incredibly strong cable that goes from the surface of the earth to a space station in geosynchronous orbit, with elevators running up and down.   Easy and (comparatively inexpensive) access to orbit.

When Clarke proposed this "ridiculous" concept in 1979 in The Fountains of Paradise, it was clearly a fanciful idea -- no material on Earth was strong enough to build such a cable.  But now we find that the almost accidentally-discovered carbon nanotubes are far stronger than steel -- quite strong enough to produce just such a cable (once, that is, we figure out how to join these immensely tiny nanotubes into a long cable.)

Now, let's consider another new carbon nanotube development -- that under just the right conditions, these tiny, strong fibers turn into semiconductors, forming the basis for transistors similar to, although far smaller than, the transistors that form the core of today's silicon chips! (http://www.research.ibm.com/resources/news
/20010425_Carbon_Nanotubes.shtml)

Could we end up with cables one hundred times stronger than steel, that are also innately computing devices?!?  Could semiconducting carbon nanotubes also be built into common building materials, in the way that glass fibers form fiberglass, creating "active" floors and walls?  If so, perhaps the terms "smart house" and "intelligent office" will take on a whole new meaning...!

And this is just one hint of how the synergy between a growing number of fields is likely to change just about everything.

So, I hope you will join me on this fascinating journey, as the convergence of computing, communications, content, telecommunications, and the physical and medical sciences boldly take us where we've never been before.  It's going to be a fascinating, if more than occasionally an unnerving journey, but one which we and our businesses don't dare ignore, least we get quickly left behind!  

It's not just that Convergence is moving quickly, but that the RATE at which it's changing is accelerating!  That's double-exponential growth.  And it will surely change all the rules.

Welcome to the home of The Harrow Technology Report.  Remember, click here to sign-up!, and together, we'll explore where these things lead!

Sincerely,

Jeff Harrow
Jeff@TheHarrowGroup.com