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The Harrow Technology Report
Insight,
analysis, and commentary on the
Copyright © 2001-2005, Jeffrey R. Harrow. All rights
reserved.
VERY Small Is Getting
VERY Big!
Listen to this Issue.
Quotes of the
Week.
The Big "Q."
Tiny Nanotech Is A
VERY Big Deal!
(Not) Losing Our
Memory.
There's MUCH More I Can Do For You!
Why 'Fiber To The
Curb?'
Storage Errata,
And More.
A Wet Day At The
Office?
Listen to this Issue.
Do you prefer to let your ears do the work of keeping you in-touch with, and thinking about where technology is taking us? If so, "The Harrow Technology Report" is also available in an audio-on-demand, M-P-3 version. If you have an M-P-3 player on your system (and most do, such as Window's Media Player, RealPlayer, etc.), the link below will either stream the file to you, or, depending on how your system is configured, it might download the file before playing it. Alternatively, if you specifically want to download the file, simply use the right-hand mouse button on the link, and choose "Save Target As..." Also, find out how you can listen at whatever speed is most comfortable for you through the FAQ at http://www.theharrowgroup.com/help.htm . Here's where to listen to this week's issue! www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20040712/20040712.mp3
Quotes of the Week.
"If I were just setting out today to make that drive to the West Coast to start a new business, I would be looking at biotechnology and nanotechnology."
Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon.com Michael Dell [answered] "nanotechnology," when asked by an MIT student which areas he'd focus on if he had to start his career today, all over again. From the May 14, 2004 Nanotech Insider Not too subtle a hint, eh?
The Big "Q."
Quantum computing may never make it to your desktop (although I'd never say 'never'). In fact, aside from some notable laboratory tests and prototypes, it's not even real yet. But that hasn't stopped reader Eliott Wheler from alerting us that, according to a June 15, 2004 Slashdot article, "...The Frauenhofer Institute of Computer Architecture and Software Technology has made available the [3] first online quantum computer simulator - it will be simulating up to 31 quantum bits, for testing new advanced [4] quantum algorithms. Behind the scenes, it is a [5] 32 node Athlon 3200 Myrinet Linux Cluster with 56GByte RAM! Now imagine the computing power of a few hundred qubits, if ever constructed..." So if you have the yearning, you can now try your hand at simulated quantum computing since Frauenhofer is making the simulator available at no charge (at least at this time.) But what is the 'magic' of Quantum Computing? It's that unlike a traditional computer that processes instructions (more or less) sequentially, a quantum computer's "qbits" (Quantum BITS) all do their processing simultaneously, and each qbit can hold more states than the traditional "one" or "zero" of a conventional bit. Because of these factors, adding just a few more qbits into a quantum computer allows its computing power to increase dramatically. As I mentioned to Elliott, "Quantum computing will initially seem almost limitless (for applicable tasks) compared to today. But it will shortly then (as usual) seem terribly restrictive for certain tasks in short order. (Then again, that's what has driven 35+ years of computer advances! J )." What, then, is so useful about 'simulating' such a quantum computer (aside from the fact that the simulator will let you find out what you may, eventually, be able to do with a quantum computer)? Are they really getting that close to 'real?' According to the June 16, 2004 CNN.com , two separate teams, one in California and the other in Austria, have independently transferred the complex "quantum state" -- not just between photons as has been done before -- but now between atoms! That means that regardless of how far apart the two "quantum-entangled" atoms are from each other, changing the quantum state of one instantly (and we're talking no speed-of-light delay here!) changes the state of the other atom to match! Einstein called it "spooky action at a distance," even though he didn't understand it at the time. OK, while that may sound impressive (transmitting information across seemingly limitless distance in zero time), the technique does seem a bit esoteric to us mere mortals (but then so did transistors just a few decades ago). This research could (could!) be a hint that not only practical quantum computers, but perhaps even Star Trek's famed "Transporter," might one day be real. The implications, if realized, will be immense. Not to mention the sheer joy of numberless Trekies if they can, one day, issue the order to "Beam me up, Scotty," and he makes it so...
Tiny Nanotech Is A VERY Big Deal!
When many of us think of nanotechnology (working with atoms and molecules in the billionths-of-a-meter size range), our first thoughts might be of tiny machines that could do our bidding, building things "up" from these basic components in the same way that Nature does. And this could be good, especially when combined with the growing number of techniques that convince these tiny particles to automatically arrange themselves into ordered structures with special properties (such as incredibly dense memory, and more, such as continuously spun carbon nanotube "thread" that is now being produced by Professor Alan Windle and his team at the Cambridge-MIT Institute (with thanks to reader Gerard Wenham for this pointer)). And -- we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of nanotech's potential.
Cancer Killer? I suspect that what may turn out to be the most significant benefits of nanotechnology will be in the medical fields. Speculation is rife about tiny robots that will be injected into the bloodstream to wander around performing specific tasks, such as "Rotor Rooting" clogged arteries, and perhaps even performing surgery while you go about your normal routine. But sometimes, especially at the beginning, "simpler" can be better, as demonstrated by what seem to be incredible results from Jennifer West, professor of bioengineering and chemical engineering, and her team -- they're using specially built gold nanospheres to kill cancer tumors, apparently with 100% success! As published in pages 171 - 176 of Issue 2 of the June 25 Cancer Letters (an abstract is freely available while the full text requires a subscription), and summarized in a June 21, 2004 Rice University press release, the researchers created silica spheres 20-times smaller than a blood cell and then added a surface layer of gold. One characteristic of these spheres is that, depending on their size and the ratio of silica to gold, they can be "tuned" to respond to particular wavelengths of light. In this case they're sensitive to near-infrared light, which passes through normal tissue without hindrance and without causing damage. Once injected into the veins of test mice that all had significant cancer tumors, the researchers waited six hours for the nanospheres to circulate through the body. Because of a characteristic of cancer tumors, that their internal blood vessels are poorly formed and tend to leak fluid into the surrounding tissue (the tumor), the gold nanospheres tended to collect within the tumors. Then, the researchers applied a near-infrared laser to the skin over the tumor areas. Although the healthy tissue was not affected, the nanospheres became quite hot as they absorbed the near-infrared light, raising the temperature in the tumor tissue by "around 50-degrees C". And the tumors were destroyed. (When the laser was applied to areas that did not have nanosphere-holding tumors below them, there was virtually no temperature change.) Within ten days, the nanosphere-treated group of mice was cancer-free and continued to live a normal lifespan! On the other hand, the tumors in two control groups (one receiving only saline injections plus the near-infrared light, and another group receiving no treatment), continued to grow "rapidly," causing the mice in these two groups to die in 10 to 12 days respectively. These are, of course, only preliminary studies, and apparently on only one type of tumor. But the results are both dramatic and startling - a non-invasive cancer treatment with 100% effectiveness and no apparent side-effects! Think of the implications if and when such a treatment becomes commonly available and effective across the spectrum of cancer tumors -- a major source of human pain and death could itself be put to death. All because of scientists working at Nature's scale. At the nanoscale. At the scale of life itself. And this is only the very beginning. Don't Blink!
(Not) Losing Our Memory.
Looking at another aspect of nanotechnology, this article's title does not relate to our forgetting to do something, or our having trouble attaching names to faces; instead, we're going to explore what may become a radical change to our computers' memory that could take effect sooner than we might imagine. Today, as explained in a May 7, 2004 ComputerWorld article, computers typically use three types of memory:
Imagine, though, if we had a type of memory that was fast, cheap, small, and never 'lost its mind' when the power was off -- it sounds like the best of all worlds -- and several new types of memory are competing for that prize:
Of course NRAM technology might not turn out to be the memory winner; it could be MRAM or Phase-Change RAM or another contender still hiding in the wings. But this type of manufacturing -- at Nature's nanoscale level, should remind us that Things Will Not Stay The Same. Don't Blink! And keep exploring those 'Hummm' thoughts when the unexpected occurs -- you might stumble across The Next Big Thing!
Begin Self-Serving Advertisement There's MUCH More I Can Do For You!
You may not realize it, but there's much more to The Harrow Group than just "The Harrow Technology Report." For almost twenty years, as I've been sharing my research on the ever-faster-moving and converging technologies that are changing how we work, live, and play, I've also been working directly with businesses and organizations, large and small, to help them understand and address how these changes may affect them, their customers, and their customers' businesses, through a series of:
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Presentations -
Highly engaging, interactive, multimedia,
constantly-updated presentations and keynote
speeches to individual businesses, internal groups,
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viscerally understand and appreciate how technology
has brought us to where we are today, and where it's
likely to lead us tomorrow.
·
Workshops
- Beginning with the presentation described above
(to give all participants a common understanding and
insight), the workshop further engages attendees to
explore how this march of technology might affect
their individual businesses and organizations, and
their specific needs.
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Individualized consulting services, available via
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and trends discussed in The Harrow Technology
Report, and related issues. Please continue at http://www.theharrowgroup.com/consulting2.htm for additional information. Then, contact me at Jeff@TheHarrowGroup.com with any additional questions, to discuss fees, and to schedule a consulting event. I look forward to working with you! End Self-Serving Advertisement Why 'Fiber To The Curb?'
This is an article I've recently written for Future Brief (http://www.futurebrief.com/). Future Brief is a new site from New Global Initiatives (http://www.ngiweb.com/) that offers brief summaries and other resources to help people, especially those on The Hill who form national policy, to keep up on technological innovations -- but with an added twist. Future Brief "takes one step back and looks at the greater convergence of the accelerating changes in science and technology, with the equally rapidly accelerating changes in society and politics." (http://www.futurebrief.com/about.asp)
It's about speed of course. And much more... If you have cable modem service
that works well, you already have download speeds of
two to three megabits/second which is nothing to
sneeze at; most operations, including reasonably
sized file downloads such as demo programs, complete
quickly enough that you rarely find yourself in the
tedious 'wait mode' of dial-up modem days. (We
won't explore here the issue of cable's relatively
paltry upload speeds, often between 128 and 256
kilobits/second, but even that is often fast enough
for typical users.) One obvious application for
higher-speed connections is video-on-demand, which
could send the "video rental" industry following the
road taken by buggy whips. I can well imagine a
time not too many years away when kids can't imagine
having to get someone to drive them down to the
"tape store" to get a movie for the evening's party
-- they'll just download the movie (hopefully from
legitimate sources that charge less per "rental"
than the stores). (The success of iTunes and
other new commercial online music services now
demonstrate that many people are indeed quite
willing to pay a reasonable fee to legally download
music. I'll bet the music industry now wishes that
they'd been proactive in online sales, rather than
letting free file-sharing networks put them at the
bottom of a hill they now have to re-climb by, in
some instances, suing their listeners...) It's Not Just Music Anymore! "Change" has already dramatically altered the "music industry," and new technologies are now beginning to affect the movie/video industry as well. New compression technologies such as MPEG 4, DivX, and others now make it viable (if still slow) to download entire movies at reasonable quality. Which is why I think (hope) that the movie industry, learning from the music industry before it, will be more aggressive in offering what their customers want, in the way they want it, at a price they're willing to pay. The movie industry's incentive is that this would surely beat the Napsterization of their industry as well. Today's saving grace is -- you guessed it -- that while cable and DSL connections can download movies, the compressed movies' file sizes are still large enough, compared to today's bandwidth, that downloading a movie is a non-trivial effort. For this application, users are 'behind the bandwidth hump' -- again.
Bandwidth Won't Stop Here. My cable system recently finished a major upgrade, switching from an old and noisy and troublesome analog coaxial cable backbone to "fiber to the neighborhood." Now, a fiber run terminates within a few hundred feet of most homes, where its signals are converted to coaxial cable for that last "tenth-mile." It works great, by comparison with the old days; instead of a constant 20% or greater packet loss and generally ridiculous latency times from the old cable modem service, packet loss or high latency of ANY amount are now occasional oddities. YES! But even though the cable company spent millions of dollars to upgrade the system, this is NOT (yet) "fiber to the curb," which could have delivered perhaps 100 megabits/second (12.5 megabytes/second) to me instead of the current 3 megabits/second (375 kilobytes/second). That 33-times enhanced speed would have made movies-on-demand practical, if still somewhat slow over today's infrastructure. The cable company may, though,
have been smart in delaying, because unsurprisingly,
'fiber to the curb' technology continues to ripen.
As early as 1998, the Silicon Valley neighborhood of
Community Center has made fiber-to-the-curb service
of up to 100 megabytes/second available to both
homes and businesses (http://www.paloaltoonline.com/weekly/morgue/ Impressive. Yet if 100 megabytes/second 'fiber to the curb' service isn't fast enough for you, NTT has just announced a "new technology [that] will increase communication speeds tenfold, to one gigabyte/second ... for fiber optic services...!" (http://www.gridtoday.com/03/0616/101564.html) They anticipate that this service will be ready to hit the road (so to speak) within two years. (Note that we have to watch how the various companies and articles specify the speed of their connections -- some state speeds in megaBYTES/second, while others specify it in megaBITS/second, where one BYTE contains 8 BITS. For comparison, 1 gigabyte/second = 1,000 megabytes/second = 8,000 megabits/second -- or a 2,667-times increase in speed compared to today's 3 megabits/second typical cable speed!) That's potentially 30 seconds to download a movie. That's "video on demand." That's a potential fundamental change to yet another industry -- if that industry doesn't adapt to its customers' expectations before less legitimate services steal their customers' hearts, minds, and dollars. 100 megabytes/second is fast enough. But only for now... Because we'll STILL always need more bandwidth. For example, just wait until you want to download your first HDTV movie; you'll find that even 100 megabytes/second 'fiber-to-the-curb' technology is slow. Again! Happily, advances in fiber technologies, and in others, will assure that this beat goes on.
Storage Errata, And More.
Magnetic Storage. In a recent issue where we discussed the continuing dramatic improvement in the price/performance of disk drives, a slip of the decimal point caused me to significantly UNDERreport just how inexpensive a megabyte of storage has now become. Thanks to the chiding of several eagle-eyed readers, you'll now find that the updated Web version of that issue sets things straight: A $99.99, 200-gigabyte disk drive costs only $0.0005 per megabyte (or 5-one-hundredths of a penny), while a $279.99, 300-gigabyte disk drive costs $0.0009 per megabyte (or 9-hundredths of a penny).
There's MORE! As impressive as that is, now a couple of months later, we find that in the inimitable style of TV shopping channels', "But Wait --There's More!" Thanks to reader Tony Harper, we find that LaCie is now shipping: A 500 gigabyte (half-terabyte!) drive for $579 (that's $0.00115 per megabyte, or 12-hundredths of a penny after rounding - you do pay for the premier density - http://www.lacie.com/products/product.htm?id=10123). And taking this to the next increment, reader Jock Stratton (and his father) disclosed that by the time you read this LaCie should be shipping that one-time holy grail of: A one-terabyte disk drive (that's 1,000 GIGAbytes, or 1,000,000 MEGAbytes) for $1,199 (that's $0.00119 per megabyte, or also 12-hundredths of a penny after rounding - http://www.lacie.com/products/product.htm?id=10118). That's about 2-years of continuous music, or one-month of continuous DVD quality video. On one disk drive. For 12-one-hundredths of a penny ($0.0012) per megabyte of disk storage. Which is unbelievable, considering that just twenty years ago I paid $60(!) for each megabyte of a 20 megabyte disk! And this is STILL just the beginning...
New Opportunities. What's particularly interesting about these storage directions, as brought to our attention by reader Alan Conroy, are the "usage revolutions" that these continuing orders-of-magnitude larger and cheaper storage enable: "Technology revolutions are interesting and important, but what are also interesting are the usage revolutions that come as a result of day-to-day technology evolution. For instance, when 125 GB hard disks became available about 2 years ago, I bought one and ripped my entire CD collection to that disk (roughly 1,000 CDs). Now I never have to load/reload the CD player. I preserve my CDs (they are effectively now my backup), and I can better organize the 13,000+ tracks with the appropriate software. Further, via my home Gigabit Ethernet, I can listen to the music in any room where I have a computer (currently 4). Admittedly, this is not earth-shattering. However, observe the following (and this is my point): Prior to cheap 120+ GB drives, it would never have occurred to me to put all my music on a hard disk. But once the disk technology advanced to a certain point, a whole new application for the technology occurred to me. That is, a technology evolution resulted in a usage revolution. Of course, this kind of thing is going on all of the time, but this example illustrates that sudden shifts in usage can occur with or without major leaps in the technology itself." A very good observation, and as we've recently seen with the Tivo-like Personal Video Recorder (PVR) revolution, this is just the beginning. If you want to be on the leading edge of offering new products or services, consider what the next (and the next...) significant storage improvements will enable!
Paper Storage Errata. In that same article mentioned above (I must have written it on a bad day), readers Burch Seymour and others reminded me that I was inexcusably unfair to our venerable punched cards. While the most popular Hollerith punched card format did indeed include 80 columns, each column held 12 rows, or 12-bits, or 1.5-bytes of data. Since it only takes eight-bits to make up a byte, each punched card weighed in with a potential 120 bytes of data. Sorry, old paper friends.
A Wet Day At The Office?
Finally, Web surfing has become ubiquitous: at the desk; at home; on the run with a PDA; via a cellphone; and more. Yet the latest surfing, brought to us via a June 18, 2004 BBCnews article, seems to be floating a bit beyond reason.
Surf-squared. Yes, it's "surfing while surfing" -- using a conventional water surfboard that's enhanced with an Intel 1.7 gigahertz processor, 80 gigabytes of hard disk, built-in WiFi, and a Web browser displayed through an LCD panel mounted flush with the surface of the surfboard. It's just perfect for those intrepid denizens of the Net who can't stomach being out of touch while waiting for that "right wave."
Needless to say, there's no extension cord -- the surfing surfboard is festooned with solar cells, and it even contains a video camera to record (and share in real-time) your exploits -- or to carry on those excruciatingly important videoconferences that just can't wait. Who'd have thought... But I do have to wonder -- if you answer business-related Emails, make a phone call, or participate in a videoconference while waiting for that next great wave, can you count your day at the beach as a day at work...? (Here's a great application for real-time video software that dresses you in a suit and inserts you into an office background.) Who knows -- perhaps you'll also be able to sell the recording of your "ultimate surf" to the next beach party movie!
About "The Harrow Technology Report""The Harrow Technology Report" explores the innovations and trends of many contemporary and emerging technologies, and then draws some less than obvious connections between them, to help us each survive and prosper in the Knowledge Age. "The Harrow Technology Report" is brought to you by Jeffrey R. Harrow, Principal of The Harrow Group. http://www.TheHarrowGroup.com . Where To Find "The Harrow Technology Report:"
Copyright (c) 2001-2005, Jeffrey R. Harrow. All
rights reserved.
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