Schedule
Note.
Time for a little holiday rest
and relaxation.
Listen to this Issue.
Give your eyes a rest...
Quote of the Week.
An orange and a floppy disk are
FAR more similar than you might think!
Smile. You're On Candid Molecule!
Molecular storage magic.
Speaking of Molecules...
From vacuum tubes to molecular
computers.
Tidbits...
Errata, plus tinier transistors
that may help Moore's Law keep up.
If A Packet Hits A Pocket...
Say THIS one three times quickly...
About "The Harrow Technology Report"
As is my custom, I'll be taking
some holiday time off and so there will be no issue
of The Harrow Technology Report on Dec. 30.
The next issue will appear on Jan. 13, 2003.
I look forward a new year (Year
19, I believe) of our continuing this never-ending,
expanding story of the innovations and trends of
contemporary computing, and of the growing number of
disruptive technologies that drive it (and us)!
Do you prefer to let your ears
do the work of keeping you in-touch with, and
thinking about where technology is taking us? If
so, "The Harrow Technology Report" is also
available in an audio-on-demand, Web-based, MP3
version.
If you have an MP3 player on
your system (and most do, such as Window's Media
Player, RealPlayer, etc.), clicking on the link
below will either stream the file to you, or,
depending on how your system is configured, it might
download the file before playing it. Alternatively,
if you specifically want to download the file,
simply right-click on the link, and choose "Save
Target As..."
Also, to learn how you can
listen at whatever speed is most comfortable to you,
check out the FAQ at
http://www.theharrowgroup.com/help.htm
.
So, if you wish, just click on
the following link to listen to this issue!
http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20021216/20021216.mp3
.
Back to Table of Contents
Snippets from a
GetAbstracts.com abstract of
"As the Future Catches You --
How Genomics and Other Forces Are Changing Your
Life,
Your Work, Your Investments, Your World,"
by Juan Enriquez
Crown Pub; ISBN: 0609609033
Courtesy of GetAbstract.com
[What is the basic similarity between an orange and
a floppy disk?]
"The
answer: They both rely on code. The floppy disk
stores information in ones and zeros. The orange has
a different type of code (the proteins represented
by the letters A,T,C,G), but it is a code
nonetheless.
The
reason we think of the two as so different is that
we can manipulate the coded information in the
floppy disk. But that is rapidly becoming true for
the orange as well. Reading and re-writing that
organic code will cause changes beyond what we can
imagine. Understanding the code would enable you to
turn an orange into a contraceptive, or polyester,
or a vaccine.
Sound farfetched? Well, each of these alterations
has ALREADY been achieved in corn. So again, if you
don’t see the congruence between orange and floppy
disk, you need to open your eyes and see what lies
just around the next turn.
Just
as digital code has changed the world we live in,
the genetic code is about to change everything
again. Genetics will drive the next century and
become the new dominant language."
-----
[To
better appreciate the LARGE amounts of data in the
genetic code, consider this comparison:]
"According to a study by the University of
California at Berkeley, the world’s media is
currently producing about 1.5 exabytes of data
ANNUALLY (including 7.5 quadrillion minutes
worth of telephone conversations; over 600 billion
emails; and 500 billion photocopies in the U.S.
alone).
Compare that to all the words spoken by all the
human beings throughout all of history, [which is]
estimated at [only] 5 exabytes."
-----
"To put the amount of
genetic data YOU posses in perspective, consider
that your genetic code consists of three billion
letters. The code is repeated twice within each
cell, and your body has about 50 trillion cells."
[Essentially, YOU
walk around carrying 1.5 x 10^23 ("15" with 22 zeros
after it, or '150 zettabits') of data. To
really appreciate the magnitude of this number,
remember that the sequence goes: Kilo, Mega, Giga,
Tera, Peta, Exa, Zetta, Yotta.]
-----
If
you stretched out the DNA contained in one of your
cells, it would measure about six feet long. Inside
your cell, it folds into trillionths of an inch!
-----
"Bioinformatics involves deriving information
from the 100 terabytes of data coming out of
genetics labs on an annual basis."
-----
"In the Industrial
Revolution, machines enabled people to leverage
their PHYSICAL capacity a hundred- or a thousand-
fold.
The new
[genetics-based] technologies may allow people to
multiply their MENTAL energies a million or a
trillion fold. The world’s best computer minds are
now being drawn to the field of biology,
specifically into the fields of bioinformatics and
bio-computing."
-----
"All the trends in
bioscience point to exponential growth.
Sound
tantalizingly like the world of semiconductors? It
seems that semiconductor's and computing's
rocket-like growth is about to happen again (driven
in-part BY computing's growth). Same story,
different field. Except that in this new case,
we're just at the BEGINNING of its
exponential curve...
Back to Table of Contents
It starts with a special zap
from a Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectrometer, and
suddenly a pattern of 1,024 bits is recorded in the
atomic spins of the atoms within a molecule!
One-tenth of a second later,
that 1,024 bit image (an array of 32-by-32 pixels)
is read back out of the molecule. Impressive,
considering that this "picture" represents the
largest amount of data ever stored within a single
molecule.
"The researchers fired an electromagnetic pulse
containing 1024 different radio frequencies close to
400 megahertz at the molecule. Each frequency either
had amplitude, representing a "1", or did not,
representing or a "0". This imprinted the
information on the molecule.
[The researchers were then] able to read the
information back by firing a second pulse with
slightly shifted frequencies at the molecule, and
measuring the consequent changes."
(http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993129)
Imagine how much information
could be stored in a cubic-inch of kilobit
molecules!
But you may not want to toss
your disk drives and flash memory quite yet -- the
longest the molecular data can currently be retained
is about one-tenth of a second, after which the
unique spin states fade. Of course, similar initial
problems have shown up with many technologies (such
as the DRAM memory that probably powers your
computer today), so this limitation could well fall
to further tinkering.
Brought to our attention by
readers Dana Hoggatt, Iman Moradi, Grant Perkins,
and others, this breakthrough demonstration was
performed by a couple of Oklahoma University
researches who "...consider this to be a first
step for storing a large amount of information in a
molecule." (http://news.com.com/2100-1001-975771.html)
But what MOST fascinates me
about this, is that we're discussing actual
demonstrations of storing data in the SPINS of ATOMS
that make up MOLECULES. Imagine what we'll see
next...
Just Three Years Away?
In fact, we don't have to
imagine too hard. Because the Dec. 1 Hoover's
Online (http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=
NR200212031180.3_a5d4002b59bb987d)
reports that within approximately three years,
"...mobile
gadgets like cellphones, digital cameras, PDAs and
MP3 players will have storage densities a million
times greater than [today's disk drives]..." [This
is] "atomic resolution... a bit box of single
atoms, [where the difference in size between one of
these bits, and a bit stored on today's magnetic
disks, is about] one-million times -- the difference
between an ant and an elephant."
This technique uses an offshoot
of an Atomic Force Microscope, who's tip is
atomically-sharp and scans across (but just above) a
field of atoms. Because the amount of current
flowing between the tip and the atoms beneath it
varies as the tip moves along, those fluctuations
can be turned into an atomic-scale picture.) In
this case, an array of "thousands of tiny sharp
tips"
replaces the single AFM tip,
and by moving this array very slightly, it can read
and write data to the molecules beneath it (with
atomic-scale storage following in 15 - 20 years,
according to Twente University's Leon Abelmann).
IBM's Zurich Labs expects to be
able to market this "Millipede" technology
(http://researchweb.watson.ibm.com/resources/news/20020611_millipede.shtml
and
http://domino.research.ibm.com/Comm/bios.nsf/pages/millipede.html)
in 2005, which could initially provide 5-gigabytes
of storage so small that it could easily fit within
a cell phone! (The question remains, of course, as
to what it will cost; initial targets are around
$1/gigabyte...)
So -- Don't Blink!
Back to Table of Contents
From Diode to Diode
I
remember, all too well, the old vacuum
tube-infested, two-way radio transmitters that I
maintained as part an early job. They were
typically hidden away in South Florida belfries and
rooftop construction shacks, laboring away in
inhumane working conditions. Of course THEY didn't
mind this steam room treatment (the sun cooking them
from the outside, and their tubes cooking them from
the inside), other than to fail (a lot) more often
than they otherwise might. (Air-condition these
spaces? You must be kidding...)
So
everything I could do to reduce the internal heat
generated by these boxes improved their longevity,
as well as my disposition (I DID mind working in
those conditions). A pretty good incentive.
Which
is why I clearly remember when the first solid-state
power diodes became available to replace the large
and VERY hot 5U4 rectifier tubes.
Their
new solid state replacements (shown below)
fit
entirely within the BASE of a 5U4 tube, saving
significant space. They generated virtually no heat
compared to the tubes they were replacing. And,
perhaps most impressive from my perspective, they
almost never failed. That combination of less heat
and essentially unlimited life meant that I didn't
have to visit these ovens nearly as often. Which
was a Good Thing.
Of
course, not all of the then-newfangled solid state
diodes were used as power rectifiers; some, like the
legendary 1N34A,
were
smaller than a grain of rice but did yeoman's work
in receivers and many other types of circuits.
Fast Forward To Today: The Diodes Get Smaller. Way
Smaller...
Unsurprisingly from today's vantage point, Moore's
law continued to dramatically shrink diodes (and
their cousins, transistors), now packing millions
(and soon billions) into our unimaginably-complex
chips.
Yet
this gets better (or worse): Reader Dana Hoggart
brings our attention to the work of chemists at the
University of Chicago who now claim to have created
a diode "...from a single molecule ... about 2.5
nanometers in diameter."
(http://www.nanoelectronicsplanet.com/nanochannels/research/article/0,4028,10497_1474851,00.html)
Inventors Man-Kit Ng and Luping Yu indicate that
they can now "...mass produce molecular diodes
with relative ease." Yu believes that
synthesizing molecular transistors (which are
essentially two diodes back to back) will also be
amenable to mass production.
...To Molecular Calculators!
But
molecules are 'so big,' being made up of all those
atoms -- surely, they can do more?
Indeed. An article at
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/25/technology/25COMP.html?ex=1036545039&ei=1&en=975cc7b2ea47bce9
(per reader
George Daszkowski), describes how Dr. Eigler,
the same scientist at IBM who first spelled out
"IBM" in xenon atoms in 1989,
has
now demonstrated an entire working logic circuit (a
"three-input sorter") that is 260,000-times smaller
(12 x 17 nanometers) than the equivalent logic
circuits used in today's integrated circuits!
To
put this in perspective, 190-billion of these logic
circuits would fit on the top of a pencil eraser.
(One-nanometer, or one-billionth of a meter, is the
size of 5 to 10 atoms lined up next to each other.)
This is "small." Consider this picture from IBM's
press release (http://researchweb.watson.ibm.com/resources/news/20021024_cascade.shtml)
that shows the molecules involved.
According to IBM (http://www.research.ibm.com/resources/news/20021024_cascade.shtml),
each logic block is made up of a few carbon monoxide
molecules placed very precisely on a copper
surface. The copper surface, at the molecular
level, looks a bit like an egg crate, covered with
tiny dimples, and the very bottoms of the larger
carbon monoxide molecules rest in the "egg cups."
But since most of the carbon monoxide molecule sits
above its cup, a "cue ball" type of operation can
cause all of the molecules to do a Chinese fire
drill across the surface which, by some magic means,
yields the answer to a calculation.
(You
can view a fascinating animation of how this tiny
logic block works at
http://domino.research.ibm.com/Comm/bios.nsf/pages/cascade.html/$FILE/cascade_small.wmv
. The animation begins with an Atomic Force
Microscope moving a molecule into just the right
depression, and then shows the "cascade" of
molecules that actually processes the information. )
It's
not quite that simple, of course -- at this point,
the whole ball of molecules has to be a couple of
degrees above Absolute Zero and in a hard vacuum.
Then, an Atomic Force Microscope has to laboriously
place each molecule, initiate the molecular cascade,
and then read-out the answer.
Even
though we don't (yet) know how to turn this
demonstration into practical molecular computers, it
does join the "Ah Ha"s that continue to open
scientists' minds to what they might next
accomplish. According to Dr. James Heath, chemistry
professor at UCLA,
"It's just a really interesting
demonstration of how small you can get and still
manipulate information... It's a beautiful piece of
work. Don Eigler and his group work at the boundary
between art and science."
Yes,
there are many problems yet to be solved to enable
the commercialization of these molecular logic
gates, yet this die may have already been cast. One
day in the not too distant future, the idea of using
anything bigger than single molecules to perform
such a function might seem as funny as, well, using
a large, ultra-hot, power hungry vacuum tube to turn
AC into DC. Or of using mechanical relays as the
components for logic gates. (Both of which were the
case only 30 years ago...)
Similar future 'paradigm shifts' are going to be SO
interesting...!
Back to Table of Contents
Begin Self-Serving Advertisement
You may not realize it, but
there's much more to The Harrow Group than
"The Harrow Technology Report."
For almost twenty years, as
I've been sharing my research on the
ever-faster-moving and converging technologies that
are changing how we work, live, and play, I've also
been working directly with businesses and
organizations, large and small, to help them
understand and address how these changes may affect
them, their customers, and their customers'
businesses, through a series of:
·
Presentations -
Highly
engaging, interactive, and constantly updated
presentations and keynote speeches to individual
businesses, internal groups, and trade
organizations, helping them to better understand and
appreciate how technology has brought us to where we
are today, and where it's likely to lead us
tomorrow.
·
Workshops
-
Beginning with the presentation described above (to
give all participants a common understanding and
insight), the workshop further engages attendees to
explore how this march of technology might affect
their individual businesses and organizations, and
their specific needs.
·
One-On-One Consulting -
Individualized consulting services, available via
phone or in-person, to help you explore the topics
and trends discussed in
The Harrow Technology Report, and related issues.
Please
continue here to view additional
information.
Then,
contact me at
Jeff@TheHarrowGroup.com
with any additional questions, to discuss fees, and
to schedule a consulting event. I look forward to
working with you!
End Self-Serving Advertisement
Back to Table of Contents
Although this data was compiled from several
sources, as many of you were quick to point out to
me it was patently incorrect. ASCI Purple will
actually draw 4.7 megawatts according to
http://news.com.com/2100-1001-966312.html
, and the human brain uses approximately 10 to 30
watts of energy.
Also, even if the figures HAD been correct, that
phrase "megawatts of power a day" is a misnomer. As
simplified by readers Perry, Ric Werme, and others,
"Megawatts per day" is not a valid unit of measure.
A watt is the RATE at which power is consumed; it is
not a QUANTITY of power. To get a specific quantity
used, you need to multiply by time, and the usual
unit is 1 hour. [For example, a megawatt-hour, or
one megawatt consumed for one hour.]
My
normally successful "rationality filter" broke down
here. (Hummm -- perhaps I can blame this error on
my brain's "software" (wetware)? Nah...)
Nevertheless, the comparison remains interesting, in
that ASCI Purple will draw about 235,000-times as
much power as our brains. We still have LOTS to
learn about Mother Nature's way of doing things.
·
The Tiniest Working Transistors? --
This technology may seem huge and ungainly
compared to the molecular innovations we discussed
above, but "evolutionary" developments such as this
one (compared to "revolutionary" developments
such as molecular computing) are what will continue
to let Moore's Law reign for the next decade or
two. And they will also help enable the next
"revolutionary" jump inwards, towards the tiniest
building blocks of our universe.
Specifically, brought to our attention by reader
Sander Olson, IBM has announced their demonstration
of "the world's smallest working silicon
transistor," which is ten-times smaller than
today's production transistors. The gate within
this transistor is but 6-billionths of a meter long
(6 nanometers), which is interesting considering
that transistor gate length must only shrink to 9
nanometers by 2016 to keep Moore on-track.
(http://www-916.ibm.com/press/prnews.nsf/jan/D08EDC1784D4F02785256C8A004F21C6)
The result, according to IBM's VP of science
and technology Dr. Randy Isaac, is that:
"The ability to build working transistors at these
dimensions could allow us to put 100 times more
transistors into a computer chip than is currently
possible... Moreover, this achievement underscores
the fundamental challenges of scaling, namely power
density, that must be addressed as silicon is pushed
to molecular dimensions."
"Innovation" doesn't just "strike again" -- it keeps
on coming, and coming, and coming...
·
Teachers Should ALREADY Watch Out
-- Following up on last issue's discussion about
how desk calculators in school may evolve
(http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/20021202/20021202.htm#_Toc26422549),
reader Rob Nixon reminded me that the "Cybiko Xtreme"
device, priced at $99, ALREADY provides a wireless
peer-to-peer self-configuring, self-extensible
network (http://www.cybikoxtreme.com/).
It comes with typical PIM-like applications
built-in, plus applications that go rather beyond
the norm, such as Instant Messaging to other Cybiko
users. And it even has provisions for Internet
access. (Wouldn't THAT be useful to an aspiring
student taking a test?)
It might not look as innocuous as a calculator, but
since a 'scientific calculator' application is
freely available for the Cybiko, a student might
have a strong case supporting her using it in
school. Of course, it does a whole lot more...
For $99.
How far we've come.
Back to Table of Contents
The following portion of a poem
by Gene Ziegler, as published in the Dec. 12, 2000
PC News Digest (http://www.pcnewsdigest.com/12122000.html#Section_12),
was brought to our attention by Ellie Rubin. If you
read it aloud in good Dr. Seuss "Cat In The Hat"
style, you're in for a treat. My congratulations to
the author; this is a great way for the
techie-at-heart to kick back and relax as the
holiday season looms ahead (his actual site, he
advises me, is at
www.people.cornell.edu/pages/elz1/clocktower).
"If
a packet hits a pocket on a socket on a port,
And the bus is interrupted as a very last resort,
And the address of the memory makes your floppy disk
abort,
Then the socket packet pocket has an error to
report!
If
your cursor finds a menu item followed by a dash,
And the double-clicking icons put your window in the
trash,
And your data is corrupted 'cause the index doesn't
hash,
Then your situation's hopeless, and your system's
gonna crash!
If
the label on your cable on the gable at your house,
Says the network is connected to the button on your
mouse,
But your packets want to tunnel to another protocol,
That's repeatedly rejected by the printer down the
hall.
And
your screen is all distorted by the side effects of
gauss,
So your icons in the window are as wavy as a souse,
Then you may as well reboot and go out with a bang,
'Cause as sure as I'm a poet, the sucker's gonna
hang!
When the copy of your floppy's getting sloppy on the
disk,
And the microcode instructions cause unnecessary
RISC,
Then you have to flash your memory and you'll want
to RAM your ROM,
Quickly turn off your computer and be sure to tell
your mom!"
The only thing that troubles me
is that, on reflection, this sounds just like some
of my networking instructors in classes so long
ago...
I wish each of you a very
satisfying holiday season, and I look forward to
continuing our conversations when The Harrow
Technology Report returns on January 13, 2003!
About
"The
Harrow
Technology Report"
"The Harrow Technology Report" explores the innovations and
trends of many contemporary and emerging technologies, and then draws some less
than obvious connections between them, to help us each survive and prosper in
the Knowledge Age.
"The Harrow Technology Report" is brought to you by Jeffrey
R. Harrow, Principal of The Harrow Group.
http://www.TheHarrowGroup.com .
Where To Find "The
Harrow Technology Report:"
- Via Email -- Sign up for automatic delivery of this journal
(which you can also use as a notification that a new issue is available on
the Web, if you prefer to
read it there), by one of these methods:
- The fastest and easiest method is to go to this Web
page http://www.theharrowgroup.com/signup.asp
and follow its instructions.
Or,
- Send an Email message to TheHarrowGroup@SendMeMore.Net
with the word SUBSCRIBE in the Subject line.
- On
The Web -- You can, of course, also read this journal directly on the
Web at www.TheHarrowGroup.com
.
-
Additionally, to support automated access schemes, the most current issue of
the journal will always be available at this persistent link: www.TheHarrowGroup.com/current.htm
.
Copyright (c) 2001-2005, Jeffrey R. Harrow. All
rights reserved.
Jeffrey R. Harrow maintains that all reasonable care and skill has been used
in the compilation of this publication. However, he shall not be under
any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever
or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the
reader, his/her/its servants, agents or any third party.
All third-party trademarks are hereby acknowledged.
