LISTEN To This Issue.

Quote of the Week.

From Atoms To Bits - A Cautionary Tale

A Convergence You Might Not Have Expected...

DVD Backup - Follow-up.

From Out of the Ether: DNA Meets Technology.

Ad Wars.

About "The Harrow Technology Report"

LISTEN To This Issue.

Do you prefer to let your ears do the work of keeping you in-touch with, and thinking about where technology is taking us?  If so, "The Harrow Technology Report" is also available in an audio-on-demand, Web-based, MP3 version. 

If you have an MP3 player on your system (and most do, such as Window's Media Player, RealPlayer, etc.), clicking on the link below will either stream the file to you, or, depending on how your system is configured, it might download the file before playing it.  Alternatively, if you specifically want to download the file, simply right-click on the link, and choose "Save Target As..."

So, if you wish, just click on the following link to listen to this issue!  http://www.TheHarrowGroup.com/articles/20011105/20011105.mp3 .

 

Quote of the Week.

 

"We have left the Windows era for the Internet era, and the PC era for the consumer electronics era. The implications of this are enormous ... but it is Internet-based software and services, and consumer electronics-style devices, that are driving the industry."

David Coursey,
July 11 AnchorDesk
http://www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/
stories/story/0,10738,2783792,00.html

 

 

From Atoms To Bits - A Cautionary Tale

 

Email is a wonderful thing (spam aside).  It's broken down many hierarchical boundaries as people instantaneously communicate across corporate strata, and across oceans.  It frees people to be able to continue their business and social correspondence on their schedule, even while traveling as physical mail collects at home. For these reasons and more, Email has become the undisputed "killer app" of the Internet, and of the PC.

Now, under the threat of disease-tainted physical mail, Email is becoming even more accepted as a business and as a social tool, because while Email may contain computer viruses that can cause havoc to our silicon servants, those "diseases" can't (currently) jump the species boundary between silicon and carbon-based life forms.  So for sound security and economic reasons discussed in the Oct. 29 InformationWeek Daily, a growing number of businesses are exploring ways to safely and effectively replace physical mail with Email (http://update.informationweek.com/cgi-bin4
/flo?y=eEqg0CCgtO0V20TWa0A7). 

BUT -- this is NOT a risk-free decision!

My concern isn't about ensuring the confidentiality of Email messages -- messages can be encrypted sufficiently ("good enough") for most commercial purposes using off the shelf software such as the PGP series - http://www.pgp.com/ .  (Which is not to say that an encrypted Email message cannot be intercepted and read by an interloper with sufficient interest and means, but that can also happen to a physical message.) 

Instead, my concern is that we WILL use the current security situation to move a significant amount of business correspondence and billing onto the Internet!

Eh?  Have I lost my enthusiasm for technology and for Email?   

 

The Problem.

Not at all.  But let's gaze forward some months or years as this trend towards Email and away from physical mail, evolves.  Let's say that 50% of today's business correspondence, billing, and payments have made the switch from atoms to bits.  Many people will be happy and save money -- it costs a business far less to send its bill or invitation or annual report via Email, and with appropriate antivirus protection it's relatively safe to open most mail that arrives in our virtual InBoxes.  And the Postal Service would be able to save money as well, by reducing the trucks and planes and infrastructure necessary to move the physical mail. 

This would seem to be a good thing, overall.  But -- could it be "Too Good?"

What happens, once business relies on Email as it currently relies on physical mail, if the Internet then becomes the target of a sophisticated and sustained attack?  What if this renders Email unusable for an extended period of time? 

Today, as the safety of physical mail is being called into question, we have the Email alternative to turn to.  But in an Email-reliant tomorrow, what would we do if the Email couldn't go through?  The physical postal system might well have shrunk its infrastructure to the point that it could no longer handle a return to paper bills, letters, and checks.  Besides, people might have changed their lifestyle to rely on the location-independence of Email; going back to the constraints of physical delivery might be problematic. 

Commerce, and society, could grind to a halt if the Email couldn't get through!

What To Do?

I'm certainly not suggesting that we stay away from "business Email."  It seems clear that even without recent events, things were headed in this Email direction already, and I rather expect that Email adoption will continue to accelerate.  But I am suggesting that as Email does become as important to our society as the physical mail system before it, that we take care -- great care -- to assure that this newly-critical economic asset (Email, and the Internet that carries it) is as well-protected and defended as any major infrastructure central to our economy, such as the water, electricity, gas, and telephone networks. 

Shoring up the Internet with its Email and World Wide Web is not a trivial task.  But I believe that assuring its health and safety has already moved from being a luxury, to becoming a vital necessity. And it will become even more so over time.

 

Life Imitating Art.

Tom Clancy has the dubious distinction of having foretold the jetliner-turned-bomb in Debt of Honor.  Indeed, had United 93, which crashed in Pennsylvania, instead found its way to its probable mark in Washington DC, life might have imitated Clancy's art with the U.S. Capital in flames. 

But what does this have to do with safeguarding the Internet and its Web and Email? 

I'd already written this article before I passed through the Vancouver airport on my way home from speaking at the National Post/University of British Columbia "Innovative Strategies for Changing Technology: An Executive Forum" (http://www.nationalpost.com/events/ubc/forum.html ).  But as I glanced at a bookstore in the concourse, a new Clancy novel, "CyberNation," caught my eye, and immediately thereafter my wallet.  Because as you're probably beginning to suspect, this new Clancy book explores these very issues: of what happens once society has moved the cogs and gears of commerce onto the Internet, which is then held hostage.  I haven't finished reading it so I don't know the outcome, but he doesn't paint a pretty picture.  Then again, he didn't in Debt of Honor either, and that, sadly, essentially came true...

Let's Take A Lesson!

The Internet is clearly the "next utility."  We, as a society, had best now treat it, and protect it, as the essential infrastructure that it is more-so-every-day becoming.  And we'd best start now -- before we're one day surprised when the bits, and the essential commerce they increasingly represent, don't go through...

 

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Jeff Harrow

 

A Convergence You Might Not Have Expected...

 

If you've been following my musings for a while, you might recall that to my enormous surprise, Sony's Aibo pet robotic dog captured my heart at COMDEX last year (http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/20001127.html#_Toc499300003).  It was truly amazing how, even in that noisy and crowded environment, this hunk of metal, plastic, and silicon elicited emotions similar to those of a real pet.

I'm sure there's a psychology PhD dissertation just waiting to come out of this phenomenon, but it isn't really something to get too excited about -- is it?  After all, Aibo is just a very expensive "toy."  Isn't it?

It turns out though, brought to our attention by reader Dana Hoggatt, that Sony has plans for Aibo's base technology that goes far, far beyond mere toys.  Consider, if you will, an Aibo-like car that interacts with us on an emotional level!

Strange as that might sound, Sony and Toyota are demonstrating the "Pod," a concept car whose "user interface" applies Aibo's "emotion engine" to make our driving experience a little better, and a bit safer. 

 

Aibo On Wheels?

According to the Oct. 24 PCWorld.com (http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/
0,aid,67643,tk,dn102401X,00.asp), the Pod learns about how we drive; what we like and dislike in the way of music; perhaps our favorite climate control settings, and the like -- it develops our profile.  And Pod then attempts to craft our perfect driving environment before we even have to ask for it!  Pod can also monitor our physiology for signs of fatigue (head-nod, eye-blink, etc.), and startle us back to wakefulness so that we can pull off the road before we fall asleep at the wheel.  It can also begin to understand our driving habits, and can compare them to an "expert driver's" profile, gently chiding us to become a safer driver.  (Although I'm not sure I like that "Big Brother," or is it "Big Rover," element...)

Of course, not all of our likes and dislikes would be apparent from just the time we spend in the car, so Pod comes with a "Mini Me" version, called "Mini Pod," that we would carry with us like a key chain.  Mini Pod would engage in constant learning about us, such as what entertainment we like, perhaps what we buy electronically, and it can act as a keyless entry to our car.  Then once back behind the wheel, Mini Pod will integrate what it's learned into the car's profiles. 

Pod also listens.  Suppose that you and your companion are chatting about Enya.  The sound system might gently bring up the haunting strains of "Only Time" from a CD, or through its wireless Internet connection (http://www.enya.com/enya.html).

 

Looking Forward...

Extrapolating a bit, if Pod has noticed that you like Thai food based on your credit card activity, then using its GPS system, a restaurant database, the time of day, and knowledge it may have of if you've eaten lunch or dinner already (from, say your PDA, or from an analysis of how long you've been in the car, or perhaps from a non-invasive laser-based through-the-skin measurement of your blood sugar level), it might suggest that you're about to pass a 4-star candidate in the next five minutes and offer to see if a table is available!  (And perhaps the restaurant's computer will offer you a discount through Pod, to entice you in?)

Assuming that we can customize Pod's services (which means "turn off" those we don't like), this could be very interesting.  But -- Sony may be going a bit too far.  You see, the Pod car, like Aibo, has a controllable tail that like a real dog's tail, signals the car's (or its driver's) emotions!  Can you see your car wagging a "thank you" to a driver that lets you into traffic!  (Or, imagine what such as car might do to a driver that cuts you off...)

Clearly, Pod is an early prototype, and many of its ideas may prove impractical or annoying as testing goes on.  But I believe this is a fascinating example of how innovative and forward-looking companies will increasingly be taking ideas that prove effective in one venue (such as the toy Aibo's ability to bond with people), and extend them into other, perhaps "improbable" directions.

I don't know that I want my car's tail to wag.  And I do harbor some concerns about "smart cars" and other "smart appliances" (such as "toll tags" and position-aware cell phones) being called to testify against us in traffic or in accident cases.  But I can certainly envision a car that interacts with me in a way that makes me feel "at home," and so easing a long commute.  And who knows -- a car that can detect and perhaps defuse the emotions leading up to "road rage," just might make rush hour safer as well!  On the other hand, a lone programmer has just broken the encryption and hacked into Aibo's proprietary programming environment, to Sony's chagrin (http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-
7746625.html?tag=dd.ne.dht.nl-hed.0).  Imagine what might happen if rogue programmers target our future cars, as well...

 

 

DVD Backup - Follow-up.

 

It's simultaneously wondrous and frustrating, how often I publish the "latest word" on a technology, only to read the next morning that it's been superseded.  Which is now the case with the future of rewritable DVDs that we discussed last issue (http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/
20011022/20011022.htm#_Toc528139081). 

Brought to our attention by reader Sander Olson, the Oct. 18 EE Times (http://www.eet.com/story/OEG20011018S0107) describes how Matsushita has announced a new, backwards-compatible version of DVD technology that can rewrite -- not the 4.7 gigabytes that is common today -- but 100 gigabytes on a single dual-layer, dual-sided disk!  (They use new violet lasers which have a shorter wavelength than the ones in use today; that allows them to focus on smaller "spots," and so pack significantly more data onto a same-sized disk.)  Wouldn't 100 gigabyte disks be a nicely-sized backup medium for today's tens-of-gigabytes hard disks?

There's another element of Matsushita's new DVD technology that would help the backup process.  Last night, my PC's backup program (Retrospect) backed up 16 gigabytes of data from my hard disk to my tape drive at the respectable speed of 60 megabytes/minute.  The problem is that since the backup program has to first write the data, and then go back and do another pass on the tape to verify that the data on the tape actually matches the data on the disk (that's the all-important "read-after-write verification pass"), the entire process takes about 9 hours.  As my disk continues to fill up, not only will I need larger tapes (or an automated tape changer), but the backups simply won't complete overnight. 

This new DVD technology, though, may be just what the data doctor ordered.  Matsushita has demonstrated that their drive can record and play back data at 248 megabytes/minute, or four times faster than my current tape drive!  At essentially one gigabyte every four minutes, this new DVD technology could theoretically (if the PC can feed it data fast enough) back up and then verify my entire 16 gigabytes of data in a mere two hours!

Much as I'd like to run out and buy one of these fast 100 gigabyte rewritable DVD drives today, they're a long way from the store shelves.  There are compatibility issues with current DVDs, and intellectual property issues that have yet to be resolved.  But the fact that this technology has now been demonstrated, and the value that such large and fast rewritable storage media would bring, make me confident that this or a similar technology will find its way into our homes and offices.

(By the way, on the more expansive issue of "data preservation" that we also discussed last issue, reader Michael Bruce points out that there are companies who offer solutions to this very issue.  One such company he brings to our attention is Kodak, which offers an explanation of the problem at http://www.kodak.com/US/en/business/
digitalPreservation/index.shtml , including some chilling examples.  Such as the corporate data of the Pennsylvania Railroad being completely erased.  Or that 20% of the 1976 Viking Mars Mission data no longer being readable...)

I just hope that these "bigger, faster" DVDs roll out soon -- before our hard disks grow so much larger, again, that a "mere" 100 gigabytes of backup capacity will not be nearly enough...

 

 

From Out of the Ether: DNA Meets Technology.

 

·        DNA Dating? -- Responding to our recent discussion of how music is being used to help us grasp the enormous complexity of DNA and its associated proteins (http://www.theharrowgroup.com/articles/
20010924/20010924.htm#_Toc525627014), reader J.D. Ray suggests where this encoding of data into music might eventually lead:

"I'm totally fascinated by the musical interpretation of DNA and amino acid coding.  Someone here pointed out that, eventually, there will be a machine that you can put a drop of your blood into, and it will play your own personal song. 

I remember reading about new silicon chips that act as biological analyzers.  Maybe one day, the "what's your song?" functionality will be a standard feature on MP3 players, and a fashionable new way to meet people.

'Do our melodies medley well?  Let's go on a date...'"

It would sure beat the stereotypical "What's your sign?"!

·        Excuse Me, Is That Your DNA Ringing? -- On the same subject, Norway reader Knut Hansson describes how turning individuals' DNA into music can solve a growing social problem:

"Here in Norway, the present craze is to download ringing melodies (the sound you hear when someone is calling) into your mobile phone...  A problem (apart from the many terrible sounds and renderings of poor Mozart) is that many people use the same sound. In public places, when a phone is ringing, many of us grab for our phones.

It struck me that with a small blood sample one could take out a part of the DNA - say the part deciding your iris pattern or your thumbprint - and make an absolutely guaranteed PERSONAL call sound. Now, that would be something!"

Sounds like Knut may be on the verge of a new business.  And what a good example, of how people are endlessly creative and innovative!

 

Ad Wars.

 

Finally, this would be pretty humorous, if it wasn't so serious to Web advertisers. 

It seems, according to the Aug. 17 ZDNet News (http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/stories/news/0,4586,5095848,00.html), that a company called Gator (http://www.gator.com/) has come up with a way to insert its own banner and pop-up ads directly on top of, and obscuring, those carried on a Web site.  Since they exactly match the size and position of the ads they're covering, you might view a page and never know which company actually sponsored the page!

"But wait," you might be saying, "that's a neat technical trick, if perhaps a cutthroat business tactic, but I have no plans to run out and purchase an application that does this." 

The thing is, this bit of programming tags along on some of the free software that so many people enjoy downloading.  For example, you might download Gator's free password manager program (which does clearly disclose this additional functionality), and suddenly the ads you see are not what they once were.  (For example, you might visit the Home Depot Web site, only to see their competitor boldly advertising their own products on Home Depot's page!)

There are, of course, two divergent schools of thought as to whether this is legal, or ethical, or none of the above, and the courts may get to weigh in on the final determination.  But this is also a great example of how one person's idea, implemented on the Web "overnight," can change all the rules! 

 

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